“Brexit Is Back, And It's Already Being Described as The Most Disappointing Season Yet” Talks between Labour and Conservative officials are set to resume today after members of Parliament return to London from their Easter break. If a deal can’t be sealed before European Parliament elections are due to be held May 23, the prime minister’s allies fear she will lose her chance and could be forced out, according to the people, who asked not to be named.
The week ahead offers few opportunities for BoE speakers to discuss how they view the development. Otherwise, with regards to broader themes for financial markets, worries persist around the strength of global growth and its effect on monetary policy. The IMF, earlier this week, cut its estimates for world GDP growth, reflecting slowdowns in China and the Euro zone, and elevated trade tensions. On that front, though US/China negotiations continue to yield positive soundbites, President Trump’s remarks on unfair European trade practices have generated some fresh concern. Trade data for both countries next week could trigger further comments.
Yesterday’s press conference at the EU emergency summit brought a six-month extension to the UK’s exit date (to 31st Oct), with a review on progress in June. Commission President Junker played down the importance of this review, stating that it was “not another cliff edge”. Sterling’s reaction was muted as markets look for more substantial updates that progress is been made with Brexit.
Today’s EU calendar was again very light and none of the data releases seem had much impact on markets. In the US, the NFIB small business survey will be watched for signs that confidence continued to hold up at the back end of Q1.