Financial markets are in turmoil, but the Pound is still holding its ground for now..
| GBP
| 'This should be more testing times for the Pound than it currently is'. This is the overwhelming majority response from analysts we follow on the current performance of Sterling and we agree.
Only two possible outcomes from here then; as soon as conditions improve (mainly the Iran-US war is over) GBP may fall between 1-2% versus the EUR and gain versus the USD by the same margin.
OR this will be the new normal for a while as the dust settles and we see what the impact on (mainly) inflation is. My bet is strongly in the favour for the former and here's why..
Global stocks are down to multi-month lows but so far there is no market crash as traders view the spike in energy prices as a short-term thing. However, the longer the war persists, the bigger the global economic hit will be.
This could then result in a high inflation and low economic growth period i.e stagflation and this will see a market and GBP crash. I think we will see some elements of that this year if this war doesn't end soon.
For now though, £-€ is back trading at the psychological barrier of 1.1550 mid-market, a level it hasn't hit since early Feb and one it hasn't performed consistently at since August 2025.
Both on this basis and the statements above, GBP v EUR is clearly favourable.
We have an interesting BoE Governor Bailey speech due this Thursday that will no doubt move Sterling, as will Friday's multiple economic releases that we believe could be positive for both the UK/£.
EUR After such a long time being the stable currency and economy of the G10, both the Euro & Euro-Zone have been rocked by this Iran-US war.
The volatility is back and the main reason it's back is rising energy prices causing future concerns just as it did when Russia first invaded Ukraine. We have a blueprint of what could happen here, which is why traders are worried and moving assets elsewhere.
So far the stance and comments from the ECB hasn't changed on inflation and interest rates, but if it does, it will weaken the € further.
USD The US Dollar continues to dominate all currencies and has been the main 'beneficiary' from the Iran-US war.
Over the weekend President Trump had this to say on Truth Social "Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for USA and world, safety and peace".
The US delivers some key economic data this week and so the FX market will be hyper-volatile and sensitive to both the goings on in the Middle East and domestically.
Please check out the main events of the week below..
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