EU v UK in latest PMI battle the main event this week for these two, but the US offers more market moving data..
| GBP
| The £-€ rate looks oversold looking at pretty much all datasets available and so a pullback is expected. Whether that arrives this week remains to be seen though, as traders are definitely not keen on anything to do with the Pound.
Mid-market levels in the high 1.15's is probably fair value at this moment in time, but with the Autumn uncertainty looming, investors and traders alike are shunning Sterling much earlier than most had anticipated.
£-$ we are far less concerned about as almost everything points to a weaker USD over most time-frames, even with the UK uncertainty ahead. The pair remains at one of the best times to buy in the last 5-years.
This week sees the latest EU v UK PMI battle and it's one that has certainly helped GBP this year. The UK has outperformed both its consensus and its rival consistently in 2025, so we could see another bump in price tomorrow.
EUR It has been a bit of a nothing month for the EU/Euro with data coming out as expected and the Euro moving side-ways. The Feds interest rate decision last week does change things slightly, as it allows €-$ to start to kick-on quicker now (already at a 4-year high).
The sizeable gain versus the Pound last Friday was all the UK's doing (as has been most of 2025). The single currency has been the dominate major this year and yet more strength is likely to come in Q4.
USD The Dollar made 1% on the Pound last week, but remains firmly on the back-foot against most currencies to be honest.
President Trump wants a weaker $ and the Fed are now cutting interest rates which naturally weakens the correlated currency. Plus, the USD has lost some of its safe-haven power, giving way to the Euro, meaning it will not gain as much when uncertainty hits the market.
Definitely one for the record books with what has happened to the Dollar this year, but more is likely to come with an interesting looking week ahead and of course a big Q4.
Please check out the main events of the week below.. |
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