What comes next with the Trump tariff circus?



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waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
February 23rd, 2026
Thankfully we have a quiet economic data calendar ahead..



GBP
How does the latest Trump tariff dramas affect Sterling?

Firstly, the UK is one of the biggest losers from what has happened over the weekend (ironic after being the first nation to sign a deal). It's estimated that UK exporters will have to pay $4 billion extra after seeing its previously negotiated 10% rate be replaced with the worldwide 15% blanket tariff.

Secondly, economic uncertainty is bad business for the Pound being a high-beta currency. Global stocks and crypto are all down and gold is up, an easy to spot 'risk-off' environment, a place where GBP performs poorly. 

Thirdly, the Bank of England have been very vocal on Trump tariffs causing forecast issues before and no doubt they will have something to say again this time round that will create market volatility. 

Against the majors directly; we could see investor $ debasement, so GBP v USD could climb higher from here (the pair is currently down by 1% over the week and last month).

GBP v EUR looks more uncertain, but our best guess is this is net-negative. Why? The EU won't be as hurt by these tariffs as much as the UK and the Euro is a safe-haven currency. The EU is preparing to reactivate its 'trade bazooka' on the US which could cause more friction and create even more uncertainty. 

We also have political uncertainty this week with the Gorton and Denton by-election scheduled for Thursday. Traditionally a Labour stronghold in Manchester is now on a knife-edge and will increase pressure on the PM if Labour loses.

A real messy week ahead..



EUR
Most of the economic data comes out of the EU this week, but none of it really represents anything worth planning for (especially with what is happening elsewhere right now).

What the EU say and do over Trump's tariff decisions will be key this week. 



USD
So it's all about Trump again.

US customs will halt collection of Trump's tariffs tomorrow (in-place since April last year) after a landmark defeat by 6-3 in the Supreme Court who ruled the action was unconstitutional.

The complexity and the chaos facing the US now is; is how does the refund process work and what happens to the retailers and consumers that have had to pay higher prices?

In response, Trump has pivoted to a worldwide blanket 15% tariff rate that lasts for 150-days. Amongst the biggest winners here are China (50%) and India (25%). This unfortunately won't be the last time be hear of this fiasco.

US and Iranian negotiators are meeting again this Thursday with no military move made by Trump over the weekend. Also outstanding of course; the ongoing Russian war with Ukraine, Venezuela & Greenland situation and a crucial upcoming meet between Trump & Xi (who has just had huge leverage placed on his lap). Chaos..

Please check out the main events of the week below..



Expected mid-market ranges for February 23rd 2026

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.3450 - $1.3550    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

  €1.1425 - €1.1475

Upcoming Data
Monday 23rd February 2026
N/A



Tuesday 24th February 2026
14:15 UK - MPC member speeches
15:00 US - Consumer confidence



Wednesday 25th February 2026
02:00 US - President Trump speech
07:00 EU - German GDP
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone inflation

 


Thursday 26th February 2026
13:30 US - Initial/continuing jobless claims



Friday 27th February 2026
00:00 UK - Consumer confidence
07:45 EU - French GDP & inflation report
08:00 EU - Spanish inflation report
08:55 EU - German unemployment rate
13:00 EU - German inflation report
13:30 US - PPI