Quiet data week ahead and with US Independence Day on Friday, low market volatility expected..
| GBP
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This week is a very quiet week in terms of economic data and so we are not expecting much GBP movement at all. The Pound has lost 0.5% from last week's high point versus the Euro, but that is to be expected after securing the first positive week in a while (plus end of month/quarter trader plays).
Sideways and consolidation is what we predict performance wise for the week ahead.
GBP v EUR is finishing the first 6-months of 2025 down by 3%..
This has mainly been out of GBP/UK's control with the EUR/EU & USD/US the main market movers causing the decline for the pair.
The Euro has been the main beneficiary for the "Sell America" trade, seeing huge inflows from investors buying and holding the Euro in reserve and EU assets.
GBP v USD is finishing the first 6-months of 2025 up by a gargantuan 9%.!!
The current 3-year high means someone with £200,000 to sell to USD, has made, wait for it... $25,000 this year by doing nothing!!
EUR The main event this week comes from the Euro-Zone's inflation report.
Inflation has a direct correlation to interest rates, but with Europe already at target, the market is just waiting on confirmation the rate cutting path is over. This should then see the Euro improve once the BoE & Fed start cutting rates at a faster and more constant pace.
USD We may well hear of trade news this week that should improve the Dollar on arrival, but the week is shortened due to US Independence Day on Friday.
It has been a disastrous 2025 for USD across the board and it may yet get worse still. The worst first-half performance has been secured since the collapse of the Bretton Woods exchange rate system in 1973.
The Bretton Woods system was established in 1944 by 44 allied nations following WWII. It led to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
"The Gold Standard" (USD pegged to gold and other currencies pegged to USD) was abolished by the US in 1971 as President Nixon announced the US would no longer convert Dollars to gold.
Since this point, currencies worldwide have been devalued by at least 99%. This latest 2025 USD devaluation is another significant moment in history, the question is, what the hell happens next?
Please check out the main events of the week below..
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