It's been a great start to the year in terms of economic growth for the UK..
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| As we anticipated, both UK retail sales & PMI data beat expectations, giving the Pound a bump going into the weekend.
Consumers in 2026 are spending and Chancellor Reeves is breathing a huge sigh of relief. Retail sales for January showed a bumper 1.8% result versus the 0.2% forecast and 0.4% in December.
The more important PMI data for February was even more surprising to economists who expected a weaker 53.2 score (down from January's 53.7), but witnessed an out-performing 53.9. Both data-sets look even more impressive because of the poor weather conditions we have had so far this year.
GDP v PMI v Retail sales
GDP - Is the comprehensive snapshot of an economy. It's the official measure for determining economic health. The problem is the data gets released 40-days after the end of each month.
PMI - This data-set is released bi-weekly in each month (preliminary and final). It's a leading indicator of economic activity and business sentiment in real-time.
Retail sales - This represents the total value of goods sold to consumers. As a services nation, this is a key variable to the overall economic picture and is released 3-weeks after the end of each month.
All 3 are important, all 3 are released at different times and all 3 can paint very different pictures of the economy at release (sorry I don't make the rules).
The Euro-Zone posted strong enough PMI data too this morning with manufacturing hitting a 44-month high, as Germany continues to recover (big time). Their overall score of 51.9 was not close to the UK's though who continue (albeit wobbled last year for the first time in many years) to dominate this data-set. |
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