UK GDP pins down the Pound

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waterman

Written by Dan Waterman
November 13th 2025
UK economy shrinks in September..

As predicted by many yesterday, the UK's GDP result this morning was worse than forecast.

In September, the UK's economy contracted by 0.1%, making it 3-months in a row of zero or negative growth. The month-on-month, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year figures all missed targets and show a sharp slowdown in all areas.

There was a huge fall in production output following the catastrophic cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover which hasn't helped, but because of the decisions made in 'Awful April' (businesses hit) and what we can expect in 2-weeks time (households hit), the economy was always going to get worse this year.

This is of course compounding further misery on the Pound today with £-€ seeing a fresh 19-month low (5.5% now lost in 1-year). 

Elsewhere, President Trump has signed the bill to reopen the US Government after a 43 day shutdown, the longest in history.

As anticipated, this has weakened the USD and should continue to do so as things across the pond pick up again (risk-off mood dissipating). The Pound has benefited some against the $ today and no doubt we would have seen some extreme volatility in the pair on this variable if the current situation (UK Budget) wasn't in play.

The Budget rumour mill will continue, £ is likely to get worse than improve any, only 13-days to go until some clarity..