A bad day of UK data, but the Pound performs surprising well (for now)..
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| Investors are in risk-off mood today as we see global stocks, gold, crypto and high-beta currencies all in the red.
AI bubble fears returned overnight (even after Nvidia's monster earnings report a couple of days ago) and pretty much everything apart from the USD is down.
Usually, we would see the Pound much lower after an event like this and especially because of the current 'negative' environment surrounding all things UK/GBP. But it has performed very stable, as it has done all week.
Even more surprising then is why Sterling hasn't dropped (yet) after a very poor data day (will the Budget surprise us all?).
The latest round of the UK v EU PMI battle was a disaster for the former for the third-month in a row. The overall figure of 50.5 (above 50 is growth) was nowhere needs expectations of 51.8 and a large fall from last month's 52.2.
The Euro-Zone offered a stable reading of 52.4 and arrived at forecast and the same as last. The multiple years of the UK always having the upper-hand on this data-set (consistently 9-months out of 12) finally looks like it's over (6-months v 5-months in 2026).
UK retail sales for October also missed estimates (-1.1% v 0% forecast and down from 0.7% in September) as consumers stop spending cash. As a services nation, this is bad news for the economy.
UK government borrowing last month was once again above expectations (£17.43BN v £15.2BN), making it 4-months out of the last 7-months that has happened.
So nothing we didn't already know was likely going to happen today then apart from not seeing the Pound fall much more today. Roll-on the Budget.. |
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