The Trump show continues (obviously)



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waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
January 12th, 2026
President Trump's latest attack on Fed independence hits all things US..



GBP
The Pound starts the new week at the same levels as this time last week.

It was a week of two-halves really with Sterling enjoying three small consecutive daily gains against the majors and then for them all to be wiped on day 4 (nothing new here).

This week's trading will be dominated by Trump & US data (see more below) so expect volatility this week, just not from anything UK/£ related. 

Whilst Trump's actions have caused nervousness amongst traders (Gold up 1.5% so far today), this isn't so far a variable that hurts GBP not being a safe-haven currency. It's solely hurting the USD and US stocks (exactly the same as last time) instead.

With nothing due out of the Euro-Zone this week and with just GDP being released by the UK (Thursday), we expect to see GBP v EUR trade sideways.

GBP v USD has a chance to push on further this week and reclaim last Tuesday's highs if the Trump v Fed saga continues.




EUR
With literally nothing worthwhile being released by the Euro-Zone again this week, the single currency will be moved by events elsewhere. If traders deem the Trump attack to be a real global issue, the Euro as a stable safe-haven currency will increase in value across the board.



USD
Here we go again.

Last week it was geopolitical tensions, this week its an attack on the Fed (again), the Trump chaos train shows no sign of slowing down.

US stocks are down and traders are nervous as to what happens next with Greenland, Iran and of course the Federal Reserve after last night's news that the DOJ has served a subpoena on the Fed and threatened a criminal indictment against its Chairman Jerome Powell. 

Powell's response to the incredible attack was steadfast and accusatory, suggesting the move was once again about the crucial independence of the Fed coming under attack by the President who wants interest rates much lower and to move much faster than they currently are and to control at the governmental level rather than as a separate entity (historically). 

The Fed looks at setting interest rates based on the full spectrum of economic conditions in the US (mainly) and globally. This includes the 3 key pillars; economic growth, jobs and inflation

The concern many analysts are suggesting if Trump gets his way with interest rates is that inflation spikes and quickly.

Elsewhere, earnings season in the US kicks off this week too with big banks reporting and a key release from TSMC (a bellwether for how chip-makers might fare this year), so plenty of financial volatility is expected this week. 


Please check out the main events of the week below..



Expected mid-market ranges for January 12th 2026

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.3375 - $1.3500    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

  €1.1475 - €1.1550

Upcoming Data
Monday 12th January 2026
N/A



Tuesday 13th January 2026
13:30 US - Inflation report
15:00 US - New home sales


Wednesday 14th January 2026
13:30 US - PPI & retail sales
15:00 US - Existing home sales
 


Thursday 15th January 2026
07:00 UK - GDP, trade balance & industrial/manufacturing production
07:45 EU - French inflation report
08:00 EU - Spanish inflation report
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone trade balance & industrial production
13:30 US - Initial/continuing jobless claims



Friday 16th January 2026
07:00 EU - German inflation report
09:00 EU - Italian inflation report
14:15 US - Industrial/manufacturing production