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| Weekly Update | Currency insight from Excel Currencies |
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 | Written by Dan Waterman October 27th, 2025 |
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Lots of things happening this week making it impossible to predict how GBP will perform..
| GBP
| £-$ has fallen for 6 consecutive trading days.
The pair is expected to break that trend today and may even claw back those losses as the week goes on. But, there are many hurdles in the way and all of which are outside the UK/GBP's control.
£-€ lost 0.5% in the end last week, but over the last month is unchanged.
The upside for this pair is painfully limited. June was the last time we were offering close to 1.16 for customers and we are currently 2% away from that level.
There is literally nothing worth looking at out of the UK this week and with UK bonds 'stable' for now, GBP is completely at the mercy of many upcoming variables (see below).
EUR The Euro-Zone offers plenty of economic data this week, especially on Thursday.
Most are expected to be non-events (including the usual 'biggies' inflation & rate decisions) as Europe as a collective, has inflation under control and interest rates where they should be in the current circumstances.
Still, there are key releases that could move the Euro on any day so be prepared.
USD This week is all about President Trump and the US.
The global stock market continues higher (especially US stocks) and more is expected IF;
- Trump can either conclude on a deal with Chinese President Xi or at least confirm positive next steps
- Earnings from the world's biggest companies continue to beat expectations
Positive investment sentiment is good news for beta currencies like GBP and bad news for safe-haven currencies like USD.
The main event is the Fed's interest rate decision and press conference, where we are fully anticipating a 25bp rate cut and guidance of more to come. This is priced in, but you never know on interest rate days..
Last Friday's US inflation report was softer than expected (good news all-round) and the hope is that this week's GDP result can also deliver positive news, which will see the USD devalue more and calm global markets further.
Trump's meeting in Japan and refusal of a meeting with Canada also has investors tuned in.
Please check out the main events of the week below..
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| Expected mid-market ranges for October 27th 2025 | | |
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| Upcoming Data | | Monday 27th October 2025 | N/A
| | Tuesday 28th October 2025 | | 14:00 US - Consumer confidence |
| Wednesday 29th October 2025 | 08:00 EU - Spanish GDP 12:30 US - Goods trade balance 18:00 US - Fed interest rate decision 18:30 US - FOMC press conference
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| | Thursday 30th October 2025 | 06:30 EU - French GDP 08:00 EU - Spanish inflation report 08:55 EU - German unemployment rate 09:00 EU - German & Italian GDP 10:00 EU - Euro-Zone GDP, unemployment rate & consumer confidence 12:30 US - GDP 13:00 EU - German inflation report 13:15 EU - ECB interest rate decision 13:45 EU - ECB press conference 20:30 US - Fed's balance sheet
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| | Friday 31st October 2025 | 07:00 EU - German retail sales 07:45 EU - French inflation report 10:00 EU - Euro-Zone inflation report 12:30 US - PPI, jobs & personal income/spending
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