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The EU & US both dominate the week ahead



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waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
October 27th, 2025
Lots of things happening this week making it impossible to predict how GBP will perform..



GBP
£-$ has fallen for 6 consecutive trading days.

The pair is expected to break that trend today 
and may even claw back those losses as the week goes on. But, there are many hurdles in the way and all of which are outside the UK/GBP's control.

£-€ lost 0.5% in the end last week, but over the last month is unchanged. 

The upside for this pair is painfully limited. June was the last time we were offering close to 1.16 for customers and we are currently 2% away from that level. 

There is literally nothing worth looking at out of the UK this week and with UK bonds 'stable' for now, GBP is completely at the mercy of many upcoming variables (see below).



EUR
The Euro-Zone offers plenty of economic data this week, especially on Thursday.

Most are expected to be non-events (including the usual 'biggies' inflation & rate decisions) as Europe as a collective, has inflation under control and interest rates where they should be in the current circumstances.

Still, there are key releases that could move the Euro on any day so be prepared.




USD
This week is all about President Trump and the US.

The global stock market continues higher 
(especially US stocks) and more is expected IF;

- Trump can either conclude on a deal with Chinese President Xi or at least confirm positive next steps

- Earnings from the world's biggest companies continue to beat expectations

Positive investment sentiment is good news for beta currencies like GBP and bad news for safe-haven currencies like USD.

The main event is the Fed's interest rate decision and press conference, where we are fully anticipating a 25bp rate cut and guidance of more to come. This is priced in, but you never know on interest rate days..

Last Friday's US inflation report was softer than expected (good news all-round) and the hope is that this week's GDP result can also deliver positive news, which will see the USD devalue more and calm global markets further. 
 

Trump's meeting in Japan and refusal of a meeting with Canada also has investors tuned in.

Please check out the main events of the week below..



Expected mid-market ranges for October 27th 2025

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.3300 - $1.3400    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

  €1.1425 - €1.1475

Upcoming Data
Monday 27th October 2025
N/A



Tuesday 28th October 2025
14:00 US - Consumer confidence


Wednesday 29th October 2025
08:00 EU - Spanish GDP
12:30 US - Goods trade balance
18:00 US - Fed interest rate decision
18:30 US - FOMC press conference



Thursday 30th October 2025
06:30 EU - French GDP
08:00 EU - Spanish inflation report
08:55 EU - German unemployment rate
09:00 EU - German & Italian GDP
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone GDP, unemployment rate & consumer confidence 
12:30 US - GDP

13:00 EU - German inflation report
13:15 EU - ECB interest rate decision
13:45 EU - ECB press conference

20:30 US - Fed's balance sheet




Friday 31st October 2025
07:00 EU - German retail sales
07:45 EU - French inflation report
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone inflation report
12:30 US - PPI, jobs & personal income/spending