Sterling to be moved by events elsewhere this week



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waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
January 26th, 2026
£-€ continues trading sideways, but £-$ now up 2% in a week..



GBP
The Pound continues to be resilient across the board so far in 2026.

GBP v EUR remains stuck in a very tight trading range 
(1.1450-1.1550 mid-market). The boring but stable environment for the pair is a relief I must say after 8-months of hyper-volatility. This trend looks set to remain for the near-future with £-€1.1550 a mighty resistance barrier blocking any real upside.

GBP v USD on the other hand is being led by a weak Dollar which has seen the pair jump to its highest point since July 2025. More could be coming this week, but overbought territory also looms, so my suggestion would be to bank the recent gains.

The UK offers literally nothing of note this week economic data-wise and so GBP will be moved by the many variables at play around the world including month-end flows with it being the last trading week of the month.




EUR
The Euro has also been capitalizing on the weaker USD and is now up an astonishing 13% in 1-year!!

The Euro-Zone offers some minor economic data throughout the week and then GDP on Friday, which may see some € weakness. Another quiet week is expected though for the Euro.




USD
Another week and another dominated by all things US.

Gold has breezed past the $5,000 barrier today (12% YTD), a forecast only a few analysts were anticipating to see much later on this year. This is a pure 'hedge' play against President Trump and geopolitics more than anything else, which has seen the USD go the other way.

We have a blockbuster earnings report this week with Microsoft, Meta, Tesla & Apple among those releasing Q4 results which will keep all financial markets volatile.

The Fed's interest rate decision and press conference on Wednesday is the main event this week. 

The Fed are expected to hold rates and the forward guidance we are anticipating to hear is to keep them as they are for a little while longer yet. This may help the USD Wednesday. 

Finally, another US shutdown is looming..

After the recent shooting of civilian Alex Pretti by federal agents, money markets are pricing in a 70% chance that the Democrats will oppose a funding bill on Friday, up from 10% before the event. 


Please check out the main events of the week below..



Expected mid-market ranges for January 26th 2026

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.3600 - $1.3700    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

  €1.1500 - €1.1550

Upcoming Data
Monday 26th January 2026
N/A



Tuesday 27th January 2026
13:15 US - Employment change
13:30 US - President Trump speech
15:00 US - Consumer confidence


Wednesday 28th January 2026
13:30 US - President Trump speech
19:00 US - Fed interest rate decision
19:30 US - Fed press conference

 


Thursday 29th January 2026
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone consumer confidence
13:30 US - Initial/continuing jobless claims & trade balance



Friday 30th January 2026
06:30 EU - French GDP
08:55 EU - German unemployment rate
09:00 EU - German GDP
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone GDP & unemployment rate
13:00 EU - German inflation
13:30 US - PPI