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| Weekly Update | Currency insight from Excel Currencies |
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 | Written by Dan Waterman December 1st, 2025 |
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Will December see a financial 'Santa Rally' or 'Bah Humbug' case?
| GBP
| UK Budget anxiety is over and we finally have short-term clarity on what the Government proposes to do with finances and debt. This has brought more stable conditions for GBP which is currently trading at 'fair value' levels.
It's too soon to forecast 2026 though, as this month is a 'biggie' and brings the end of what has been a very unpredictable and volatile year.
Sterling has started December in the red as investors remain nervous of an AI bubble and have concerns on future US growth. Global stocks have fallen (in particular the tech-heavy Nasdaq) and therefore high-beta currencies like the Pound have fallen too.
Yes the 'mood music' has improved for the UK/£, but the Budget was just one of multiple variables that drive market conditions. One of those major variables happens soon with the BoE expecting to announce an interest rate cut (negative for £).
Therefore we expect to see further consolidation from the Pound this week.
EUR The Euro-Zone finally offers some economic data this week, but it isn't expected to move markets.
This is because all things EU right now seem stable and nothing feels high-risk whatsoever on the calendar (a position the UK/£ are very far away from currently).
As a well-favoured safe-haven currency (this year in particular), the Euro will perform well when investor sentiment like today sours, but will devalue when conditions improve.
USD £-$ is continuing to trade at a 1-month high and looks set to 'kick-on' from here.
For that dream to become a reality, a lot is riding on how well global stocks (mainly US) perform this month and whether or not the Fed will cut interest rates (likely).
President Trump has been putting more pressure on Venezuela over the weekend and it feels like something 'big' may happen soon (military). This kind of situation creates nervousness and uncertainty in the market and so prepare to hear more on this headwind in the near future.
Please check out the main events of the week below..
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| Expected mid-market ranges for December 1st 2025 | | |
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| Upcoming Data | | Monday 1st December 2025 | N/A
| | Tuesday 2nd December 2025 | | 01:00 US - Fed Chair Powell speech | 07:00 UK - BoE financial stability report & nationwide house prices 07:45 EU - French government budget balance 08:00 EU - Spanish unemployment change 09:00 EU - Italian unemployment change 10:00 EU - Euro-Zone inflation report & unemployment rate 15:00 US - Job openings
| Wednesday 3rd December 2025 | | 13:15 US - Non-farm employment change |
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| | Thursday 4th December 2025 | 10:00 EU - Euro-Zone retail sales 13:30 US - Initial/continuing jobless claims
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| | Friday 5th December 2025 | 10:00 EU - Euro-Zone GDP & employment change 15:00 US - PPI, personal income/spending & factory orders 20:00 US - Consumer credit |
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