Potential end to the longest US government shutdown imminent



logo
18year
Weekly Update
Currency insight from
Excel Currencies
banner1

waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
November 10th, 2025
Important UK economic releases ahead this week..



GBP
The Pound is starting the week on the front-foot, buoyed by the news over the weekend that the US government shutdown is coming to an end.

Why is this good news for GBP?

It's that safe-haven v high-beta currency play again when it comes to investor sentiment. Political uncertainty is bad news for financial markets and when this happens, investors flock to USD and out of more 'risky' currencies like GBP.

Even though they have performed well overall, global stocks 'could' have gone higher if no shutdown occurred. The US has probably lost 0.1% of GDP per week that has gone by. Now there will be a boom once things restart and the stock market is moving first to collect these gains.

So once again Sterling is moved by events outside of its control.

However, this week the UK offers crucial data that will likely move £. First up is the latest round of jobs data that should show the unemployment rate rising slightly again and average earnings falling again (possible GBP weakness here).

Then it's the GDP number for September on Thursday which could go either way, but my bet is that it won't deliver anything positive.

£-€ is at a 1-week high and £-$ trades at a 10-day high (for now)..




EUR
The Euro-Zone only really offers its Q3 GDP result this week, which we aren't expecting to see any surprises on and so a 'quiet' week is anticipated for the Euro.



USD
After a busy couple of weeks, the US offers up a more 'calm' set of data points that aren't expected to create much volatility. 

Once we hear confirmation that the US government shutdown is over, we should see the USD weaken further and risk conditions continue to improve.


Please check out the main events of the week below..



Expected mid-market ranges for November 10th 2025

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.3125 - $1.3200    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

  €1.1350 - €1.1400

Upcoming Data
Monday 10th November 2025
N/A



Tuesday 11th November 2025
07:00 UK - Average earnings & unemployment rate


Wednesday 12th November 2025
07:00 EU - German inflation report


Thursday 13th November 2025
07:00 UK - GDP, trade balance, manufacturing/industrial production & business sentiment/investment
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone industrial production
13:30 US - Inflation report & initial/continuing jobless claims
18:00 US - 30-year bond auction
21:30 US - Fed's balance sheet




Friday 14th November 2025
07:45 EU - French inflation report
08:00 EU - Spanish inflation report
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone GDP & trade balance