|
| Weekly Update | Currency insight from Excel Currencies |
|  |
|
 | Written by Dan Waterman November 10th, 2025 |
|
Important UK economic releases ahead this week..
| GBP
| The Pound is starting the week on the front-foot, buoyed by the news over the weekend that the US government shutdown is coming to an end.
Why is this good news for GBP?
It's that safe-haven v high-beta currency play again when it comes to investor sentiment. Political uncertainty is bad news for financial markets and when this happens, investors flock to USD and out of more 'risky' currencies like GBP.
Even though they have performed well overall, global stocks 'could' have gone higher if no shutdown occurred. The US has probably lost 0.1% of GDP per week that has gone by. Now there will be a boom once things restart and the stock market is moving first to collect these gains.
So once again Sterling is moved by events outside of its control.
However, this week the UK offers crucial data that will likely move £. First up is the latest round of jobs data that should show the unemployment rate rising slightly again and average earnings falling again (possible GBP weakness here).
Then it's the GDP number for September on Thursday which could go either way, but my bet is that it won't deliver anything positive.
£-€ is at a 1-week high and £-$ trades at a 10-day high (for now)..
EUR The Euro-Zone only really offers its Q3 GDP result this week, which we aren't expecting to see any surprises on and so a 'quiet' week is anticipated for the Euro.
USD After a busy couple of weeks, the US offers up a more 'calm' set of data points that aren't expected to create much volatility.
Once we hear confirmation that the US government shutdown is over, we should see the USD weaken further and risk conditions continue to improve.
Please check out the main events of the week below..
|
|
| Expected mid-market ranges for November 10th 2025 | | |
|
| Upcoming Data | | Monday 10th November 2025 | N/A
| | Tuesday 11th November 2025 | | 07:00 UK - Average earnings & unemployment rate |
| Wednesday 12th November 2025 | 07:00 EU - German inflation report
|
|
| | Thursday 13th November 2025 | 07:00 UK - GDP, trade balance, manufacturing/industrial production & business sentiment/investment 10:00 EU - Euro-Zone industrial production 13:30 US - Inflation report & initial/continuing jobless claims 18:00 US - 30-year bond auction 21:30 US - Fed's balance sheet
|
| | Friday 14th November 2025 | 07:45 EU - French inflation report 08:00 EU - Spanish inflation report 10:00 EU - Euro-Zone GDP & trade balance |
|
|