Political instability is hurting the Pound



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waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
February 9th, 2026
Investors get nervous over UK politics..



GBP
It was a dramatic week for the Pound last time out and more of the same could be on the cards this week.

Financial markets are nervous 
over the goings on at Downing Street and many consider Prime Minister Keir Starmer's position as a precarious one. You may have heard that Starmer's chief of staff; Morgan McSweeney, resigned yesterday and took full responsibility for advising the PM to appoint Peter Mandelson as US ambassador in 2024. 

You would think this would have helped Starmer, but the market isn't so sure. Then this morning his director of communications; Tim Allan, quits after just 5-months in the job (returning to Downing Street after 30-years where he was under Tony Blair) and becomes the 4th person to leave the role in just 1-year.

Political uncertainty has always hurt the UK and its assets.

UK bond yields have spiked again
 as investors price in a 'political risk premium' and Sterling is fundamentally weaker over the coverage thus far.

The Pound v Euro enjoyed a very short trip into the £-€1.16's mid-market before the BoE meet last week, before crashing 1% after the event. GBP v USD followed a similar path but with an increased fall of 1.5%.

GBP will be moved by what the media spin this week as-well-as how the PM responds. The main economic data release comes on Thursday with Decembers' GDP result and i'm hopeful for a positive result.




EUR
The Euro-Zone offers its GDP result this week which is expected to be a bit of a non-event due to the machine 'ticking over' at a consistent rate. Other than that, it's business as usual with the EU/€ with no dramas anticipated.



USD
Compared to January, it was a quiet start to February for all things US related.

That being said, we did see a stock, precious metals and crypto bloodbath (and later huge recovery for some) as investor sentiment turned sour over the AI trade. This will continue and no doubt will be a huge talking point this year as we uncover more about AI and how it's shaping the future.

For now, the USD has given back some of last week's gains due to being in overbought territory and it's a rather quiet week on the data-front so volatility could be limited for the first time this year.

Please check out the main events of the week below..



Expected mid-market ranges for February 9th 2026

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.3575 - $1.3675    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

  €1.1450 - €1.1525

Upcoming Data
Monday 9th February 2026
N/A



Tuesday 10th February 2026
13:30 US - Retail sales


Wednesday 11th February 2026
13:30 US - Average earnings, nonfarm payrolls & unemployment rate
 


Thursday 12th February 2026
07:00 UK - GDP, trade balance & industrial/manufacturing production
13:30 US - Initial/continuing jobless claims & existing home sales



Friday 13th February 2026
08:00 EU - Spanish inflation report
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone GDP & trade balance
13:30 US - Inflation report