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Lack of market liquidity to lessen volatility this month

US inflation data & UK GDP the market movers for the week ahead..


The Pound has lost over 1% against most currencies compared to 1-month ago and this week looks to be a test also. Many analysts have downgraded Sterling's value following the BoE interest rate decision and following meeting last week. But, £ remains range-bound and overall still very much favourable.

The main release to look out for is the UK GDP number released Friday morning, which we are calling a mini-risk event for Sterling sellers. Consensus is to see 0.2% growth for June, leaving Q2's growth number at 0. Anything less will be seen as GBP negative, anything more and we may see a slight £ bump.

The Euro was rather unchanged across the board last week after enjoying many successful trading weeks without EU data releases. This of course wasn't the case versus £ with the BoE doing the 'damage' and this week it could be the same again. No major economic news will leave the € once again a 'sitting duck', but we wouldn't be betting on any Euro weakness ourselves..

The Dollar remains in fine form and is following market expectations of near-term strength (also long-term is forecast). Thursday's inflation report is a big deal for markets as is Friday's PPI number and so anyone with exchanges in the pipeline need to pay attention. A mid-market rate of £-$1.25 is much more likely than July's high of 1.30 by the end of this week.