A calmer market is expected this week, but anything can happen at Thursday's BoE meeting..
| GBP
| It was another bad week for the Pound with events outside of its control seeing £-€ fall to its lowest level since May 2023 and £-$ hitting a 6-month low.
It's still not clear whether the Pound is in 'overbought territory' or not, but I would have to say it's a not for me. I just can't see how the Pound bounces back 2% this week versus the USD and 1% against the Euro (where it was 2-weeks ago).
There is not much going on economically this week and so no news could be good news for GBP, but another budget rumour in the media or anything that hurts global investor sentiment and Sterling sinks further in this hypersensitive environment.
Let's be clear, if the BoE do not cut rates this Thursday, they almost certainly will in December.
With the UK Budget before December's meet, why would investors move positively on GBP if no cut arrives Thursday, knowing the main risk event is weeks away and a rate cut is likely to arrive in a 6-weeks' time?
The worry is if a rate cut arrives this month and there is talk of another next month, although that is extremely unlikely to happen. My best guess is they will pass and move next month, in which case GBP should be unmoved.
Mid-market prices of £-€1.13-1.14 & £-$1.31-1.33 look fair trading ranges to me this month.
EUR The Euro-Zone offers nothing of note this week and so will be moved by events elsewhere.
Nearly 2% has been lost against the Dollar over the last month and this may continue this week with the USD just stronger across the board at the moment.
USD It was a very busy week last time out for all things US, which ultimately improved USD's position overall.
President Trump continues his spotlight work with news on Venezuela, Nigeria & China and no doubt will have a say on markets this week. Other than that, we have US jobs data being released but very little else.
Please check out the main events of the week below..
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