GBP likely to head lower in build-up to Budget



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waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
November 17th, 2025
A negative week is expected for Sterling..



GBP
£-€ has recovered from its sub-1.13 mid-market slump seen on Friday, but for how much longer?

The UK Budget pressure is building, rumours continue to circulate (no raise in the basic rate of income tax the latest) and the UK data this week poses a problem.

The UK offers inflation, confidence, retail sales & PMI figures this week and all are expected to go lower. The data alone could easily sink GBP by 0.5% this week.

What financial markets and what consumers want to see next week are the complete opposite to each other.

Businesses and consumers have been hunkering down this year and depending on what the outcome at the Budget is next week, it could be more of the same next year and beyond (if tax hikes arrive). But this play 'could' prove GBP positive in the middle-to-long-run.

If so called 'back-door' or 'stealth' taxes arrive, it will result in the same outcome for businesses and consumers, but be GBP negative in all aspects, as it's essentially kicking the can down the road again and it hasn't been working. 

Or the Chancellor surprises us all and breaks her self-imposed fiscal rules and everyone lives happily-ever after (maybe)?




EUR
Another 'back-seat' week is ahead for the Euro-Zone with only PMI data worth looking at on Friday. 



USD
It was the usual volatility in the £-$ rate last week (1%+ swing), but current levels reflect the same as this time last week.

US stocks ended up retreating for most of last week which strengthened the USD and we may see similar this week with earnings being reported by huge companies amid concerns of an AI bubble.

November has been stable for the pair, but this and next week should change that narrative with ease.


Please check out the main events of the week below..



Expected mid-market ranges for November 17th 2025

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.3125 - $1.3200    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

  €1.1300 - €1.1375

Upcoming Data
Monday 17th November 2025
N/A



Tuesday 18th November 2025
N/A


Wednesday 19th November 2025
07:00 UK - Inflation figures
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone inflation figures
19:00 US - FOMC meeting


Thursday 20th November 2025
13:30 US - Initial/continuing jobless claims, non-farm payrolls & unemployment rate
15:00 US - Existing home sales



Friday 21st November 2025
00:00 UK - Consumer confidence
07:00 UK - Retail sales & public sector borrowing

08:15 EU - French PMI
08:30 EU - German PMI
09:00 EU - Euro-Zone PMI
09:30 UK - PMI
14:45 US - PMI