|
| Weekly Update | Currency insight from Excel Currencies |
|  |
|
 | Written by Dan Waterman February 2nd, 2026 |
|
It's all eyes on the Bank of England this week..
| GBP
| The Pound 'should' be moved mainly by what the BoE do, say and more importantly how they vote on Thursday this week.
In the build-up to every Bank of England meet last year, GBP lost some ground across the board and volatility occurred mostly on the voting more than what the actual outcome was or what was said in the meeting thereafter (just so you know).
Pretty much no-one is expecting any surprises on Thursday, but it's the Central bank and so anything can realistically happen!
Most analysts are predicting the next rate cut to arrive in April with only one other expected in 2026, but I wouldn't be betting on this outcome personally. A similar theme to the last 18-months of one cut per quarter is my forecast.
All else being equal, this will be GBP negative versus the Euro especially as the interest rate premium falls. But for now, £-€ continues to consolidate and trade 'boringly' with no near-term change expected.
EUR The Euro-Zone has a few minor data releases this week as-well-as the ECB interest rate decision, but nothing due is expected to create any kind of market volatility (unless the final PMI report surprises dramatically on the upside).
USD January was all about all things US related and the hope is that this has now run out of steam (unlikely).
Last week we saw overall a positive earnings report from some of the US' huge companies, a Fed interest rate hold, a surprising new Fed chair announcement and huge profit taking in precious metals.
This week the US offers some important economic data and the USD will look to capitalize on the 1% it has gained across the board since this time last week.
Please check out the main events of the week below..
|
|
| Expected mid-market ranges for February 2nd 2026 | | |
|
| Upcoming Data | | Monday 2nd February 2026 | 15:00 US - Manufacturing PMI
| | Tuesday 3rd February 2026 | | 07:45 EU - French inflation report 08:00 EU - Spanish unemployment change 15:00 US - Job openings
| Wednesday 4th February 2026 | 08:15 EU - Spanish services PMI 08:45 EU - Italian PMI 08:50 EU - French PMI 08:55 EU - German PMI 09:00 EU - Euro-Zone PMI 09:30 UK - PMI 10:00 EU - Euro-Zone & Italian inflation report 13:15 US - Non-farm employment change 14:45 US - PMI |
|
| | Thursday 5th February 2026 | 07:00 EU - German factory orders 07:45 EU - French industrial production 10:00 EU - Euro-Zone retail sales 12:00 UK - BoE interest rate decision 13:15 EU - ECB interest rate decision 13:45 EU - ECB Press conference
|
| | Friday 6th February 2026 | 07:00 EU - German trade balance & industrial production 07:45 EU - French trade balance 13:30 US - Unemployment rate, average earnings & non-farm payrolls |
|
|