EU & UK interest rate decisions this week



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waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
February 2nd, 2026
It's all eyes on the Bank of England this week..



GBP
The Pound 'should' be moved mainly by what the BoE do, say and more importantly how they vote on Thursday this week.

In the build-up to every Bank of England meet last year, GBP lost some ground across the board and volatility occurred mostly on the voting more than what the actual outcome was or what was said in the meeting thereafter (just so you know).

Pretty much no-one is expecting any surprises on Thursday, but it's the Central bank and so anything can realistically happen!

Most analysts are predicting the next rate cut to arrive in April with only one other expected in 2026, but I wouldn't be betting on this outcome personally. A similar theme to the last 18-months of one cut per quarter is my forecast.

All else being equal, this will be GBP negative versus the Euro especially as the interest rate premium falls. But for now, £-€ continues to consolidate and trade 'boringly' with no near-term change expected.




EUR
The Euro-Zone has a few minor data releases this week as-well-as the ECB interest rate decision, but nothing due is expected to create any kind of market volatility (unless the final PMI report surprises dramatically on the upside). 



USD
January was all about all things US related and the hope is that this has now run out of steam (unlikely).

Last week we saw overall a positive earnings report from some of the US' huge companies, a Fed interest rate hold, a surprising new Fed chair announcement and huge profit taking in precious metals.

This week the US offers some important economic data and the USD will look to capitalize on the 1% it has gained across the board since this time last week.


Please check out the main events of the week below..



Expected mid-market ranges for February 2nd 2026

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.3650 - $1.3725    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

  €1.1525 - €1.1575

Upcoming Data
Monday 2nd February 2026
15:00 US - Manufacturing PMI



Tuesday 3rd February 2026
07:45 EU - French inflation report
08:00 EU - Spanish unemployment change
15:00 US - Job openings


Wednesday 4th February 2026
08:15 EU - Spanish services PMI
08:45 EU - Italian PMI
08:50 EU - French PMI
08:55 EU - German PMI
09:00 EU - Euro-Zone PMI
09:30 UK - PMI

10:00 EU - Euro-Zone & Italian inflation report
13:15 US - Non-farm employment change
14:45 US - PMI

 


Thursday 5th February 2026
07:00 EU - German factory orders
07:45 EU - French industrial production
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone retail sales
12:00 UK - BoE interest rate decision
13:15 EU - ECB interest rate decision
13:45 EU - ECB Press conference




Friday 6th February 2026
07:00 EU - German trade balance & industrial production
07:45 EU - French trade balance
13:30 US - Unemployment rate, average earnings & non-farm payrolls