Big month ahead for the Pound

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waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
September 1st, 2025
Possible downbeat investor sentiment (understandably) keeping the Pound down..



GBP
Halfway through August I acknowledged Sterling was having a good month, but questioned whether it was enough. This was based on the 'peak and valleys' analysis seen in 2025 so far;

Each time £-€ found itself in a valley (low point), the next peak (high point) failed to reach the one before. Meaning overall, the pair is sliding down.

GBP v EUR started August at the month's low of 1.1450 mid-market and ended 1-cent higher at 1.1550. However, July finished at the same rate range and so nothing was gained or lost MoM.

Momentum has failed to carry on into September presumably because of the concoction of worry ahead for the UK; low growth, high inflation, weak jobs, strong chance of tax rises.

This now puts a lot of pressure on the month being a success for the Pound, ahead of what is sure to be a gloomy looking Autumn..




EUR
You may have read last week that France is headed for another 'no-confidence' vote on September 8th.

With political uncertainty/instability comes currency weakness and so the door is ajar for the Euro to fall next week. However, don't be surprised if £-€ fails to move at all.

France's debt is rising, yields are too and political parties are not agreeing on very much at all. But, the UK debt crisis is simply far worse, more pressing and whilst France is Europe's second biggest economy, it is one country of many in the Euro-Zone.




USD
The Dollar was weaker in August losing 1% versus the Euro and nearly 2% against the Pound.

The softer USD came after investors bet that a Fed interest rate cut was incoming later this month and further more than anticipated by year-end. Dollar volatility is expected this week as workers/traders etc return to work from summer holidays and some key economic data is being released out of the US.

Please check out the main events of the week below..



Expected mid-market ranges for September 1st 2025

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.3475 - $1.3550    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

  €1.1500 - €1.1550

Upcoming Data
Monday 1st September 2025
N/A



Tuesday 2nd September 2025
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone headline & core inflation


Wednesday 3rd September 2025
09:15 UK - BoE member Breeden speech
15:00 US - Factory orders & job openings 



Thursday 4th September 2025
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone retail sales
13:15 US - Non-farm employment change
13:30 US - Initial & continuing jobless claims, trade balance & imports/exports



Friday 5th September 2025
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone GDP
13:30 US - Average earnings, non-farm payrolls & unemployment rate