UK Budget - The unprecedented uncertainty is nearly over



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waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
November 24th, 2025
Will Chancellor Reeves be able to convince financial markets (and the UK people) that she has a credible plan to 'balance the books' & promote economic growth?



GBP
So here we are then, the year's main event for the UK & GBP.

Firstly to say this has to be the most 'public' Budget in history and unfortunately all the noise surrounding it has led to the Pound's demise.

GBP v EUR is set to record its 6th consecutive monthly decline..

In monetary terms, the pair has effectively lost €2,000 each month since the middle of May on a £200,000 - € exchange. 

£-€ is down a scary 7% since early March's 1.21 mid-market peak.

So much has happened this year to contribute to the above, but ultimately it's the UK's debt crisis and the government's handling of it so far that has caused the Pound to crash. 

The question now is will things get worse?

Possibly. 

Financial markets want to see tax hikes as that looks to be the only credible way out of this mess long-term. Yes this is counter-productive in many ways and there are other ideas to fix the debt problem, but this is what is probably needed for GBP to remain stable (1.13-1.14).

If Reeves breaks her self-imposed 'fiscal rules' instead of the Labour party's election manifesto (a political disaster in itself), she risks credibility and therefore will result in most believing she has lost control of the situation which will create huge nervousness of the future (bond yields will spike) and GBP will fall to 1.11-1.12.

If you have a larger exchange in the pipeline (within 2/3-months) and you have not yet moved, you still have options to either remove or lower your currency risk. 

A 'Forward Contract' takes the risk off the table now. 

'Hedging' removes some or most of the risk. 

If you would like more information on either play, please respond to this email or contact your account manager.




EUR
For the third week in a row, the Euro-Zone doesn't offer very much and this may actually be a theme for the coming months.

Inflation is under control, interest rates will remain where they are and growth is turning positive. The PMI data last week was 'good' and the Euro looks me decent value where it currently is.




USD
It was once again another week of AI bubbles, recession risks and stock performances that moved the USD.

The US does offer a few bits of economic data that is worth looking out for, 
but they are primarily overshadowed by the UK Budget and the lack of liquidity in the market towards the end of the week due to Thanksgiving Day. 


Please check out the main events of the week below..



Expected mid-market ranges for November 24th 2025

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.3050 - $1.3125    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

  €1.1300 - €1.1375

Upcoming Data
Monday 24th November 2025
14:15 US - Industrial production



Tuesday 25th November 2025
07:00 EU - German GDP
13:30 US - PPI & retail sales
15:00 US - Consumer confidence & pending home sales


Wednesday 26th November 2025
10:00 UK - UK Budget
13:30 US - Building permits, initial/continuing jobless claims, durable goods, GDP & goods trade balance
15:00 US - New home sales & personal income/spending
21:30 US - Fed's balance sheet


Thursday 27th November 2025
N/A



Friday 28th November 2025
07:00 EU - German retail sales
07:45 EU - French GDP, inflation & consumer spending
08:00 EU - Spanish inflation
08:55 EU - German unemployment rate
09:00 EU - Italian GDP
10:00 EU - Italian inflation
13:00 EU - German inflation