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UK autumn budget set for November 26th

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waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
September 3rd 2025
Chancellor Reeves doubles down again on fiscal rules being non-negotiable..

'We need to bring inflation and borrowing costs down. We will do that by keeping a tight grip on day-to-day spending and enforcing fiscal rules'.

These were the comments by Rachel Reeves this morning after confirming the UK autumn budget will take place November 26th. The decision comes after the UK leads the global bond rout and GBP taking the most punishment.

Here is some rather scary correlation data for you on GBP v EUR:

2024
Average rate - 1.18
High - 1.2150 (Dec)
Low - 1.1530 (Jan)
5% gain

2025 (so far)
Average rate - 1.18
High - 1.2120 (Feb)
Low - 1.1430 (Jul)
5% loss

Make of this what you will, but there is no doubt the pair has obviously collapsed. The question is will the expected autumn blues punish Sterling further (1.1150 Feb 2023 for example) or is this the surprising low point right now?

The UK economy needs to improve to give the chancellor breathing room after what has been a very difficult first year in power for Labour and there are signs once again things are steadily improving.

The final PMI data for August arrived this morning markedly higher than the preliminary figure for the second consecutive month in a row. An overall score of 53.5, beats the initial 53 number and rushes past July's fair growth figure of 51.5.

Some key information from the report that you won't find in mainstream media;

- Business activity hit a 10-month high amid receding US tariff fears and lower borrowing costs.

- New orders in the services sector saw the largest one-month gain since March 2021, a strong indicator of improvement in customer demand.


The Euro-Zone's PMI came out as expected but it means they are now further away from the UK with a growth score of 51.