Both Tuesday & Thursday to potentially offer volatility for the Pound as UK data returns..
| GBP
| It has been a quiet 2-weeks out of the UK in terms of economic data, but this week offers a thing or two worth watching.
GDP has always been a key variable for financial markets to make decisions on and in this current climate, analysts are scrutinizing the UK's closely each month.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of goods and services produced.
GDP is the main measure of economic health for a country and when things are not going so well, it highlights when and how bad one is in recession. The UK is in growth at the moment for the year, but it's both stagnant and downward trending. If the result Thursday is either above or below the forecast, £ will move.
Before that though, we have important labour market news. Average earnings has been a key factor in the UK since the covid pandemic and is something the BoE are following closely as it directly links to inflation rates.
For the Bank of England to feel comfortable about inflation coming down to target, wage inflation has to both continue and drastically fall.
The unemployment rate and jobs available are secondary to both topics above as they are less important at the current time, but still offer some weight to the Pound's value. So tomorrow morning we should see some Sterling action.
GBP has been moving by events elsewhere the past 2-weeks including the UK's party conference's (although no £ movement here). Now the UK gains back some control of its currency's movements, but with very limited upside unfortunately.
EUR
This time last week, French PM Sebastien Lecornu resigned after just 1-month in charge. One-week later, he is back..
This is both good and bad news I guess for the Euro-Zone, France & the Euro. Lecornu has named a new government, Macron has said he won't resign or call for an election and so 'stability' for all concerned has returned.
But; why did he really leave and why has he really come back?
In the meantime, two French parties have filed a no-confidence motion and French bond yields have risen and what happens exactly from here is, uncertain.
The EU offers some inflation data this week, but other than that will be moved by events elsewhere (including France).
USD
President Trump has been at it again; both saving and creating chaos.
Trump has helped end the war in Gaza and has hailed an 'historic new dawn of the Middle East' when addressing Israel's parliament earlier today. He went on to say it's 'an incredible triumph for Israel and the world'. Hopefully this ceasefire is here to say and this variable is now off the table for financial markets.
On Friday though, he threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and restrict certain key exports to the nation. This message sent the stock market down and trade war nerves once again entered the entire financial market.
He then cooled the escalation over the weekend by saying "Don't worry about China, it will all be fine. The USA wants to help China, not hurt it!". Stocks are now in recovery mode..
The US offers some key economic data later in the week, so let's see if the recent US Dollar advance is over or whether it's another week of gains.
Please check out the main events of the week below..
|
|
Twitter
Facebook
linkedin
Google
