Sterling is the best performing G10 currency in August so far



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waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
August 18th, 2025
Trump-Zelenskyy & Jackson Hole-Powell are key market driving meetings ahead this week..



GBP
The Pound is having a 'good' August so far, but is it enough?

Back in May, £-€ rebounded from an awful April performance after both Trump tariffs and government debt created huge problems for the currency. The rebound though fell 2% short of March's high and 1% short of Q4 last year.

This is significant, as foundationally the pair is no longer where it was a short while ago and looks unlikely to get back there anytime soon. So a 'new normal' has taken the place of seeing and hoping to buy at the physiological barrier of £-€1.20.

At the next peak, if GBP v EUR fails to reach within 2% of March's £-€1.21 mid-market, I think we need to brace for a 'rough' Q4.

The UK offers inflation data for July on Wednesday that should be a non-event, but is an important release nonetheless. Then on Thursday it goes head-to-head once again with the EU on PMI data which saw the UK win comfortably last time out.

This plus hopefully positive retail sales data on Friday should see Sterling continue to climb and maintain its August strength, but is it enough?




EUR
The Euro faces a rather quiet week especially when compared to what the other majors are facing..

EU inflation is not an issue anymore and so no risk event here. PMI's were downgraded last month, which is a bit of a concern but are fully expected to rebound this month. German GDP could go either way. 




USD
The week belongs to the US/USD on paper, but the big meetings taking place could render nothing of importance..

After his 'successful' meeting with President Putin in Alaska last week, President Trump welcomes President Zelensky (and allies) at the White House today. Of course anything can happen here so financial markets will be watching the comments closely.

Jackson Hole is an annual event held by the Federal Reserve in the US for bankers, academics and finance minsters and this year Fed Chair Powell is the only person people want to hear from. Will he fight his corner or will he signal interest rate cuts are imminent?

Please check out the main events of the week below..



Expected mid-market ranges for August 18th 2025

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.3500 - $1.3600    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

  €1.1550 - €1.1625

Upcoming Data
Monday 18th August 2025
N/A



Tuesday 19th August 2025
13:30 US - Building permits & housing starts


Wednesday 20th August 2025
07:00 UK - Core inflation & headline inflation rates
08:10 EU - ECP President Lagarde speech
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone core inflation & headline inflation rate
19:00 US - FOMC meeting



Thursday 21st August 2025
01:00 US - Jackson Hole
07:00 UK - Public sector borrowing
08:15 EU - French PMI
08:30 EU - German PMI
09:00 EU - Euro-Zone PMI
09:30 UK - PMI
13:30 US - Initial/continuing jobless claims
14:45 US - PMI

15:00 US - Existing home sales
21:30 US - Fed's balance sheet



Friday 22nd August 2025
00:00 UK - Consumer confidence
07:00 UK - Retail sales
07:00 EU - German GDP
15:00 US - Fed Chair Powell speech