Trump-Zelenskyy & Jackson Hole-Powell are key market driving meetings ahead this week..
| GBP
| The Pound is having a 'good' August so far, but is it enough?
Back in May, £-€ rebounded from an awful April performance after both Trump tariffs and government debt created huge problems for the currency. The rebound though fell 2% short of March's high and 1% short of Q4 last year.
This is significant, as foundationally the pair is no longer where it was a short while ago and looks unlikely to get back there anytime soon. So a 'new normal' has taken the place of seeing and hoping to buy at the physiological barrier of £-€1.20.
At the next peak, if GBP v EUR fails to reach within 2% of March's £-€1.21 mid-market, I think we need to brace for a 'rough' Q4.
The UK offers inflation data for July on Wednesday that should be a non-event, but is an important release nonetheless. Then on Thursday it goes head-to-head once again with the EU on PMI data which saw the UK win comfortably last time out.
This plus hopefully positive retail sales data on Friday should see Sterling continue to climb and maintain its August strength, but is it enough?
EUR The Euro faces a rather quiet week especially when compared to what the other majors are facing..
EU inflation is not an issue anymore and so no risk event here. PMI's were downgraded last month, which is a bit of a concern but are fully expected to rebound this month. German GDP could go either way.
USD The week belongs to the US/USD on paper, but the big meetings taking place could render nothing of importance..
After his 'successful' meeting with President Putin in Alaska last week, President Trump welcomes President Zelensky (and allies) at the White House today. Of course anything can happen here so financial markets will be watching the comments closely.
Jackson Hole is an annual event held by the Federal Reserve in the US for bankers, academics and finance minsters and this year Fed Chair Powell is the only person people want to hear from. Will he fight his corner or will he signal interest rate cuts are imminent?
Please check out the main events of the week below..
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