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Market volatility may come from traders opening and closing positions this week with both the month and quarter ending..


Last week, money markets bridged the gap to economist views that the UK will lower interest rates in August. Markets now show a 65% chance of a BoE rate cut, compared to a 99% chance from economists. The question now is whether or not GBP is currently priced in for one? We think not..

The usually volatile GBP v USD is currently trading at a 5-week low (but only just) with rather minimal movement in the pair during this time (1.5%). In contrast, the GBP v EUR has been far busier and has seen a swing of nearly 2%, in half the time. Both remain very favourable in their own right for Sterling sellers. 

The UK offers nothing on the economic calendar this week and so will play the 'sitting duck' role. With not much happening elsewhere either, it won't be alone. The only thing that could realistically bring some volatility is with it being the month and quarter end, where traders could open and and close positions, which may result in some market movement. 

French political news seems to have calmed down a bit for now, which has given some much needed respite to the single currency. The Euro is still down 1% versus the USD & 0.6% down against the Pound in the last month. This week sees some confidence figures and inflation data, but nothing is expected to provide a spark. 

We may see GBP v USD continue its slow decline this week, but Friday's PPI data may change things. The US stock market is having a moment which is boosting the Dollar currently, as international capital is flowing into US equities.

Upcoming Data
Monday 24th June 2024

Tuesday 25th June 2024
14:00 US - House price index
15:00 US - Consumer confidence

Wednesday 26th June 2024
07:00 EU - German consumer confidence
07:45 EU - French consumer confidence
11:00 EU - French unemployment benefit claims
12:00 US - Mortgage applications
15:00 US - New home sales
21:30 US - Bank stress tests

Thursday 27th June 2024

09:00 EU - Italian business and consumer confidence
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone economic & industrial sentiment
12:30 EU - Spanish business confidence
13:30 US - Durable goods, initial/continuing jobless claims & goods trade balance
15:00 US - Pending home sales

Friday 28th June 2024
07:00 EU - German retail sales
07:45 EU - French inflation rate
08:00 EU - Spanish inflation rate
08:55 EU - German unemployment rate & change
10:00 EU - Italian inflation rate
13:30 US - PPI, personal income/spending