Here's your Daily Currency Update – 29 June 2026

• Sterling has been remarkably steady since Wednesday 24th June — GBP/EUR held a tight 1.152–1.160 range and GBP/USD stayed close to 1.32 throughout the period.
• EUR/USD recovered modestly from lows around 1.138 recorded on 24 June, now trading near 1.1405.
• Today's UK lending data came in softer than expected — Mortgage Approvals at 56.21K versus a forecast closer to 63–66K — adding mild downside pressure on sterling.
• BoE MPC Member Pill spoke this morning; ECB President Lagarde is scheduled for later today.
• Political backdrop includes Andy Burnham's speech today outlining his economic vision and devolution plans, which markets are monitoring for any UK policy signals.
• GBP/EUR 1.1595 (0.8628) | GBP/USD 1.3210 | EUR/USD 1.1405.
• Big week ahead: UK GDP Tuesday, EU CPI and US ADP Wednesday, US Nonfarm Payrolls Thursday, UK PMIs Friday.

Since Wednesday 24 June, major currency pairs have traded in a low-volatility, range-bound fashion. Sterling showed resilience against both the euro and dollar, supported by steady underlying conditions and limited surprises from European data. EUR/USD saw a gentle recovery from session lows near 1.138, reflecting a mild rebalancing of dollar positioning heading into month-end.

Today's UK money and credit data introduced a softening note — Mortgage Approvals came in meaningfully below expectations, suggesting the higher-rate environment is still filtering through to housing market activity. European inflation prints through the week were broadly in line, and central bank speakers added to the background noise without changing the overall narrative. BoE's Pill this morning and ECB President Lagarde later today are the next voices to watch.

Looking ahead, the calendar accelerates sharply this week. Tuesday's preliminary UK GDP figures are the first major domestic test, followed by EU CPI and US employment data that will shape expectations for the Bank of England and Federal Reserve into the second half of the year.

• Sterling held its ground against the euro throughout the period despite today's softer UK lending figures, suggesting the pound has solid underlying support near current levels.
• European data — including Spanish CPI landing in line — offered the euro little fresh impetus to push back against sterling.
• Today's Burnham speech on devolution and economic vision adds a domestic political note; markets are watching for any signals that could affect fiscal or monetary policy expectations.
• Tuesday's preliminary UK GDP is the next major test — a beat would support sterling, while a miss could pressure the pair toward the lower end of its recent range.

• The pound held its position against the dollar across the period, despite a broadly firm dollar tone in wider markets.
• Today's softer UK Mortgage Approvals added a touch of downside pressure, but Cable found support near the lower end of its recent range.
• No major UK political developments caused sharp moves; markets stayed focused on the data calendar rather than headlines.
• Thursday's US Nonfarm Payrolls — the most closely watched monthly jobs report — alongside Tuesday's UK GDP are the two events most likely to break the current range.

• The euro has edged slightly higher since Wednesday's lows, supported by month-end currency rebalancing flows rather than any major data shift.
• GBP pairs have held steadier than EUR/USD, reflecting the euro's slightly softer footing relative to both the pound and dollar.
• Lagarde's speech later today could shift sentiment if she signals any change in the ECB's thinking on future rate moves.
• Wednesday's EU CPI flash estimate is the key data point this week — it will show how quickly Eurozone inflation is cooling, which directly shapes ECB rate expectations.