Here's your Daily Currency Update – 28 October 2026

• Sterling has edged lower over the past 24 hours as markets weighed a firm dollar and the UK Budget against generally solid US data yesterday.
• US consumer confidence and durable goods figures came in better than expected, supporting the dollar while the euro held a narrow range.
• Chancellor John Healey delivered the Autumn Budget at midday, emphasising energy bill relief, a £15bn fiscal headroom, and no major tax rises on working people; gilts remained relatively stable.
• The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates at 3.75–4.00% this evening, with attention on Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments about the path ahead.
• Thursday brings US Q3 GDP and core PCE alongside the ECB decision, where a hold at 2.50% is widely anticipated.
• Overall mood is watchful: fiscal credibility and central-bank patience are the main themes.
• Budget day volatility in numbers: see the table showing the euro difference on a £250,000 transfer – up to €7,825 between the three-month low and the recent high.
• With the Fed tonight and the ECB tomorrow, know where the banks see sterling heading: download our free Q4 Quarterly Forecast for rate forecasts, the key-event calendar and what today’s Budget could mean for your transfer.

The past 24 hours have been more about positioning than fireworks. Sterling softened modestly against both the euro and the dollar as traders digested stronger-than-forecast US consumer confidence (91.7) and durable goods orders from Tuesday, which kept the greenback firm. The UK Budget, delivered by Chancellor John Healey around 12:30 UK time, focused on household energy relief (scrapping gas standing charges and extending the electricity VAT cut), a projected fiscal headroom of £15bn in 2029-30, and growth forecasts of 1.2% this year. Gilts held relatively steady, suggesting the market saw the package as broadly consistent with earlier expectations of limited headroom and no large tax surprises on labour income.

Looking ahead, tonight’s Federal Reserve decision (widely expected to be a hold after September’s hike) and Thursday’s combination of US Q3 GDP, core PCE and the ECB meeting will dominate. Timing around these releases often proves more consequential than the spot rate itself: a delayed or incomplete transfer instruction can miss a brief window of liquidity or a post-event move that a well-prepared process would capture cleanly.

• Gas standing charges to be scrapped from next year for around 23 million households, saving roughly £45–£108 on a typical bill.
• VAT cut on electricity bills extended until July, taking about £50 a year off the average annual bill; fuel duty freeze also extended to July 2027.
• Fiscal headroom set at £15bn in 2029-30, rising to £22bn in 2030-31; OBR growth forecast 1.2% this year, 1% next year, then 1.6–1.8% in subsequent years.
• Borrowing to fall from 4.4% of GDP to 4.2% this year, with the deficit to be eliminated within three years; debt projected to edge down from 83.2% of GDP.
• Extra funding (around £20bn over several years) for the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank to support energy, defence, AI and infrastructure projects.
• National living wage to rise by nearly 4%; emphasis on “breathing space” for households and businesses without major tax rises on working people.

Sterling has drifted lower against the euro over the last day or so, moving from the upper end of its recent range toward 1.1938 (0.8377) as Budget caution and a firmer dollar limited appetite for the pound. The pair’s 24-hour range ran from roughly 1.1937 to 1.1962, a net decline of about 0.0022.

• Stronger US data yesterday supported the dollar and, by extension, capped euro strength relative to sterling.
• The Budget’s emphasis on energy relief and a £15bn headroom figure was largely anticipated, producing little fresh directional impulse once the speech concluded.
• Euro-area sentiment indicators earlier in the week remained soft, but not weak enough to drive a clear break lower in the cross.

This table illustrates the best and worst rate over a given time frame — highlighting the volatile nature of the FX markets and why timing is crucial.

The numbers show movement is real even when the market feels quiet. Most buyers focus on the rate, yet the rate is only one part of the equation. What often makes the larger difference is the quality of guidance around when to transfer, how the process is managed, the clarity of communication, and the reliability of the people handling the money. A slightly better rate with poor support or delays can cost more than a well-timed transfer executed smoothly.

For early-stage buyers the real question is rarely just “what is the rate today?” It is “who will help me navigate the timing, the paperwork and the practicalities so the money arrives exactly when needed, without stress?”

Want to see a different amount or timeline? try our useful calculator...

The pound has softened against the dollar over the past 24 hours, trading near 1.3288 after a range of 1.3272–1.3312 and a net decline of roughly 0.0018. The move reflects both the Budget’s lack of positive surprise and the support the dollar received from Tuesday’s US figures.

• US consumer confidence and durable goods both beat forecasts, reinforcing the view that the Fed can afford to pause tonight.
• Sterling’s pre-Budget drift was orderly; the speech itself did not trigger a sharp reaction once the main numbers were known.
• Broader dollar strength ahead of the FOMC has limited any recovery attempt.

The euro has edged slightly higher against the dollar over the last day, sitting near 1.1136 within a tight 1.1113–1.1137 range and posting a modest net gain of about 0.0010. The pair remains constrained by the approaching ECB meeting and the Fed’s expected hold.

• Tuesday’s solid US data limited upside for the euro, while softer euro-area surveys earlier in the week prevented a clearer recovery.
• Markets price a high probability that the ECB will leave the deposit rate at 2.50% on Thursday.
• Divergence between a patient Fed and a data-dependent ECB is the main near-term theme.

Events from the past 24 hours are reflected in the pair analyses above.