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Here's your Daily Currency Update – 28 August 2026

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Karl
Written by Karl Daly
August 28th 2026
Jackson Hole caps a quieter sterling week after BoE bets were pared
Today's Key Points
  • Since Monday’s report the pound has eased against both the euro and the dollar after starting the week near local highs.
  • The main driver was Wednesday’s US data dump: core PCE stayed at 3.3%, headline PCE ran a touch hot at 3.7%, and durable-goods orders jumped 1.1%.
  • Thursday added two more pieces — US jobless claims fell to 203,000 and ECB minutes kept a further rate rise on the table.
  • Market mood: cautious and range-bound, with desks waiting for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole (15:00 UK).
  • This morning Europe split: Spanish flash CPI 4.3%, French CPI 2.4%, French GDP stalled at 0.0% versus 0.2% expected.
  • Still to come today: Canadian GDP, Chicago PMI, Michigan sentiment and BoE’s Catherine Mann.
  • Next week London is shut on Monday (bank holiday); Nationwide house prices and German CPI follow, then US payrolls on 4 September.
  • Current mid-market ranges: GBP/EUR €1.1535–€1.1644 | GBP/USD $1.3455–$1.3588.
  • New in this report: Property Buyer Spotlight – see the real 1-week, 1-month and 3-month high/low ranges and what they mean for a £250,000 transfer.
Market Overview

The week since Monday has been a story of early firmness giving way to a midweek reset. Sterling began the period close to last week’s six-month high against the dollar, then slipped as US inflation held sticky and traders pared bets on a Bank of England rise this year. Wednesday’s core PCE matched the 3.3% forecast; headline PCE at 3.7% and a 1.1% durable-goods print kept the dollar bid. Thursday’s ECB accounts said another hike would likely be needed unless the inflation outlook improves, while claims at 203,000 took a little heat out of the labour scare. This morning’s euro-area prints refused to rhyme: Spain at 4.3%, France at 2.4% with zero quarterly growth, Germany’s jobless rate unchanged at 6.4%. In Westminster, Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s spending plans and the October Budget remain the slow-burn political backdrop as parliament prepares to return. The rest of Friday turns on Warsh’s first Jackson Hole address as Fed chair, with Chicago PMI and the BLS payrolls benchmark revision due in the same window.

GBP/EUR Analysis

GBP/EUR: €1.1535–€1.1644 | Level: ~1.1668 (0.8571)

  • Week high 1.1708 on Tuesday; week low 1.1654 on Thursday.
  • French CPI 2.4% year-on-year (prior 2.1%) with the monthly rate in line at 0.7%.
  • ECB July accounts: a further hike likely unless the inflation outlook improves significantly.
  • Catherine Mann speaks at 15:30 UK — the only scheduled BoE voice today.
Educational note: A cross can look “quiet” while both legs are moving. If GBP/USD and EUR/USD fall by similar amounts, GBP/EUR barely budges. That is why a 0.46% weekly range can still sit inside a busier dollar week. With Monday a UK holiday, next week’s first sterling-specific print is thin; euro CPI follow-through and any fiscal colour from Westminster after recess will do more of the talking than a London data void.
PROPERTY BUYER SPOTLIGHT
Timing, Range & the Bigger Picture
 

This table illustrates the best and worst rate over a given time frame — highlighting the volatile nature of the FX markets and why timing is crucial.

Period High Low £250k at High £250k at Low Difference
1 Week 1.1708 1.1654 €292,700 €291,350 €1,350
1 Month 1.1731 1.1642 €293,275 €291,050 €2,225
3 Months 1.1828 1.1534 €295,700 €288,350 €7,350

The numbers show that movement is real, even when the market feels quiet. Most buyers naturally focus on the rate itself. Yet the rate is only one part of the equation. What often makes the larger difference is the quality of guidance around when to transfer, how the process is managed, the clarity of communication, and the reliability of the people handling the money. A slightly better rate achieved with poor support or unexpected delays can easily cost more than a well-timed transfer executed smoothly.

For early-stage buyers the real question is rarely just “what is the rate today?” It is “who will help me navigate the timing, the paperwork and the practicalities so that the money arrives exactly when it is needed, without stress?”

Want to see a different amount or timeline? try our useful calculator...

Try Calculator Here
GBP/USD Analysis

GBP/USD: $1.3455–$1.3588 | Current: ~1.3590

  • Wednesday drop of about 0.4% was the week’s single largest session.
  • US GDP second estimate held at 1.5%; personal income rose 0.4% and spending 0.2%.
  • Fiscal watch: parliament returns next week; funding of Burnham’s programme is the gilt-market theme into the October Budget.
  • Afternoon risk is clustered: Warsh, Chicago PMI and the preliminary payrolls benchmark revision.
Educational note: Rate-differential pricing can move sterling even when UK data is absent. This week’s slide owed more to what traders stopped expecting from Threadneedle Street — and to a dollar that refused to fade after PCE — than to a homegrown release. A UK bank holiday Monday often leaves Cable following New York into Tuesday, so next week’s first real test for the pair is less London and more the US employment report on 4 September.

EUR/USD Analysis

EUR/USD: ~1.1647

  • Week high 1.1688 on Monday; week low 1.1637 on Thursday.
  • Core PCE 3.3% in line kept the Fed debate live without settling it.
  • Swiss KOF at 106.7 versus 103.0 was a brighter regional activity footnote.
Educational note: When national inflation prints inside a currency union disagree, the exchange rate often treats them as a blend, not a verdict. Spain at 4.3% and France at 2.4% can cancel in the cross even as they matter for the ECB’s next meeting. Into next week, German preliminary CPI and US payrolls are the two dates most likely to test this week’s 1.1637–1.1688 band.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Date Time (UK) Currency Event Actual / Forecast Previous Imp.
Wed 26 Aug 13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (YoY / MoM, Jul) 3.3% / 0.2% / 3.3% / 0.2% 3.3% / 0.1% ★★★
Wed 26 Aug 13:30 USD PCE Price Index (YoY / MoM, Jul) 3.7% / 0.2% / 3.6% / 0.1% 3.7% / −0.1% ★★★
Wed 26 Aug 13:30 USD GDP Annualized (Q2, 2nd est.) 1.5% / 1.5% 1.5% ★★★
Wed 26 Aug 13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (Jul) 1.1% / 0.5% 0.5% ★★★
Thu 27 Aug 12:30 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts Released ★★★
Fri 28 Aug (Today) 06:45 EUR French Prelim CPI (YoY / MoM, Aug) 2.4% / 0.7% / – / 0.7% 2.1% / 0.6% ★★★
Fri 28 Aug (Today) 06:45 EUR French GDP (QoQ, Q2) 0.0% / 0.2% −0.2% ★★★
Fri 28 Aug (Today) 08:00 EUR Spanish Flash CPI (YoY, Aug) 4.3% / 4.2% 3.6% ★★★
Fri 28 Aug (Today) 13:30 CAD GDP (MoM) – / 0.2% 0.3% ★★★
Fri 28 Aug (Today) 14:45 USD Chicago PMI (Aug) – / 57.6 57.6 ★★★
Fri 28 Aug (Today) 15:00 USD Fed Chair Warsh – Jackson Hole – / – ★★★
Fri 28 Aug (Today) 15:00 USD Prelim. Benchmark Payrolls Revision – / −911k ★★★


Conclusion

From Monday’s firmer open to this morning’s tight coil, the week has been more shuffle than stampede. Sterling gave back some of last week’s dollar gains, the euro argued with itself after Spain ran hot and France stood still, and everyone is now waiting on Warsh’s Jackson Hole address. If the speech stays high-level, Friday may close as quietly as it opened. London then disappears for the bank holiday, with payrolls on 4 September the next major test. The ranges above are the week’s real footprint — modest, measurable, and already in the rear-view mirror.

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
For tailored currency handling solutions, whether for personal transfers or business needs, contact Excel Currencies for a free quote.