Here's your Daily Currency Update – 23 June 2026

• UK flash PMIs came in softer than expected — Services at 48.7 (forecast 50.1), Composite at 49.4, though Manufacturing held firm at 53.1.
• GBP/EUR touched a year high near 1.1600 — the strongest sterling has been against the euro in twelve months, a significant moment for anyone with euro-denominated purchases planned.
• Sterling showed resilience despite the PMI disappointments and ongoing UK political transition following Keir Starmer's resignation.
• The dollar remained firm ahead of US flash PMIs due later today, keeping GBP/USD in a contained range.
• GBP/EUR 1.1590 (0.8637) | GBP/USD 1.3230 | EUR/USD 1.1425.
• Week ahead: further central bank speeches from BoE and ECB members, more US data, and ongoing UK leadership headlines.

This morning's UK flash PMI releases painted a mixed picture — services activity slipped below the expansion threshold at 48.7, below the 50.1 forecast, while manufacturing stayed comfortably in growth territory at 53.1. The composite reading of 49.4 suggests the economy is running at a marginally below-par pace heading into summer, though the data didn't knock sterling off course.

The standout story today is GBP/EUR trading close to its year high near 1.1600. Sterling has been quietly building momentum against the euro over recent weeks, and this level represents a notably favourable exchange rate for anyone converting pounds to euros. Meanwhile, markets continue to process the UK political backdrop following Keir Starmer's resignation, with the Labour leadership transition creating some background noise but no sharp currency moves. The dollar held its footing ahead of US PMI data expected later in the session. The remainder of the week features additional central bank commentary and US data that will help calibrate where rates go from here.

• UK Services PMI fell to 48.7 (forecast 50.1, prior 49.3) — below the 50 expansion line — but sterling held gains, showing the market is focused on the bigger GBP/EUR trend.
• Manufacturing PMI at 53.1 (forecast 53.5) stayed firmly in expansion territory, providing a counterbalance to services softness.
• The pair traded briefly near 1.1600, a year high for sterling against the euro, before settling around 1.1590.
• Eurozone PMIs also showed services losing momentum, which levelled the playing field and supported GBP outperformance on the cross.

• The softer UK PMIs didn't derail sterling against the dollar, which shows the pound has reasonably solid underlying support at these levels.
• Dollar strength ahead of US PMI data kept Cable from pushing higher, creating the familiar tug-of-war between UK resilience and USD firmness.
• UK political noise from the Labour leadership transition was absorbed without significant impact — markets appear relaxed about continuity.
• No major overnight data releases shifted the pair; it remains in a well-defined range.

• Eurozone flash PMIs signalled services weakness alongside manufacturing that is barely holding up, adding to the soft euro narrative.
• The euro underperformed sterling today, which is why GBP/EUR climbed — the pound found more support than the euro from relative fundamentals.
• Hawkish US rate expectations kept the dollar supported, limiting EUR/USD's room to recover.
• The pair is showing contained moves, consistent with a market that lacks a strong directional conviction ahead of more data.