Here's your Daily Currency Update – 14 July 2026

• US June CPI came in cooler than forecast — headline -0.4% MoM (vs -0.1% expected) and 3.5% YoY (vs 3.8%), core 0.0% MoM — a meaningful downside surprise that knocked the dollar lower.
• Sterling pushed higher in response: GBP/USD toward 1.3370, GBP/EUR steadied near 1.1725 as risk-on sentiment returned.
• BoE Governor Bailey is speaking this afternoon — his tone on rates and the UK economic outlook could add a further twist for sterling.
• Thursday's UK GDP print is the next major domestic catalyst — a solid reading would reinforce the case for further GBP outperformance.
• It's World Cup semi-final week: France face Spain tonight, England take on Argentina tomorrow — expect thinner liquidity around kick-off.
• Current mid-market ranges: GBP/EUR €1.1610–€1.1708 | GBP/USD $1.3282–$1.3387.

Today's big story is US inflation — and the pound liked what it heard. June CPI came in decisively cooler than forecast, with the headline monthly reading at -0.4% against a -0.1% expectation, and the annual rate dropping to 3.5% versus the 3.8% consensus. Core inflation was flat on the month. The dollar softened across the board as the data reduced near-term pressure on the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance, while sterling and the euro both gained.

GBP/USD pushed toward 1.3370 while GBP/EUR held near 1.1725. BoE Governor Bailey speaks this afternoon — his commentary on the UK rate path could add a further sterling-specific dimension to the day's moves. Thursday's UK GDP release is the next scheduled risk event for the pound, and a solid growth print could extend the current advance. Beyond the data, the World Cup semi-finals provide a colourful backdrop: France vs Spain tonight, England vs Argentina tomorrow. If England reach the final, expect a brief sentiment boost for cable.

• Cooler US CPI lifted the pound more than the euro on a relative basis, helping GBP/EUR edge higher after a quiet Asian session.
• The pair remains range-bound but the post-CPI risk-on tone provides meaningful near-term support.
• Bailey's speeches this afternoon add UK-specific volatility risk — hawkish commentary would be further pound-positive.
• Thursday's UK GDP could tip the balance in favour of further GBP outperformance; support in the 1.1610–1.1640 zone, resistance near 1.1750–1.1800.

• The CPI undershoot knocked the dollar lower across the board, giving sterling the room to push toward 1.3370.
• With the CPI data now behind us, focus shifts to Thursday's UK GDP and further Fed commentary through the week.
• A solid UK growth print could extend the rally toward 1.3420–1.3450; support sits in the 1.3280–1.3300 range.
• Bailey's afternoon remarks are worth monitoring — any signal of a slower BoE cutting pace would add upside pressure.

• The euro joined the post-CPI rally against the dollar but lagged GBP slightly — reflecting the additional sterling tailwinds from Bailey's expected remarks and upcoming UK GDP.
• Eurozone disinflation remains on track; ECB policy continues on a gradual, data-dependent path with no fresh urgency in either direction.
• The pair is supported near 1.1380 with near-term resistance around 1.1450.