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Here's your Daily Currency Update – 13 November 2026

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Karl
Written by Karl Daly
November 13th 2026
NEW Quarterly Forecast · Q4 2026
Excel Currencies Quarterly Forecast, October to December 2026
Three rate meetings and a Budget. What could possibly go wrong?
October – December 2026
✓ Will the Budget steady sterling, or merely introduce it?
✓ Why France, not the Fed, handed the pound 1.18
✓ What the odds say about 5 November
✓ Exchange rate forecasts from leading banks
Where banks see rates by January 2027
GBP/EUR
1.12 – 1.19
€70,000 gap on £1m
  GBP/USD
1.28 – 1.35
$70,000 gap on £1m
  EUR/USD
1.13 – 1.16
$30,000 gap on €1m
Four dates that could move your rate
28 OCT
UK Budget
28 OCT
Federal Reserve decision
29 OCT
ECB decision
5 NOV
Bank of England decision
Download the Q4 Forecast  ↓
Free PDF · 11 pages · Bank forecasts, key-event calendar & economic outlook
Ranges are the spread of published bank and consensus forecasts, Bloomberg, 5 October 2026. Not dealing rates and not an Excel Currencies forecast.
Friday Update: Euro Near Multi-Month Lows, US PPI Softens
Today's Key Points
  • UK third-quarter GDP printed 0.7% yesterday, matching forecasts and supported by services and AI-related activity.
  • US October CPI earlier in the week was hotter than expected; today’s PPI came in slightly softer at 0.3% month-on-month.
  • Eurozone figures this morning were broadly in line, leaving little fresh impulse.
  • Sterling has held a quiet range against the euro while the dollar retains residual support.
  • Market mood is calm and data-dependent heading into the weekend.
  • EUR/USD has fallen sharply in a short space of time and is trading near multi-month lows. This is a favourable backdrop for US clients who need to convert dollars into euros in the coming months, as they currently receive more euros per dollar. It is a less attractive window for those selling euros for dollars.
  • Today’s main data is now digested; next week brings UK inflation and retail figures.
  • Even a quiet Friday still moves the numbers over time: see the table showing the euro difference on a £250,000 transfer – up to €9,975 between the three-month low and the recent high.
  • With UK inflation and retail figures next week, know where the banks see sterling heading: download our free Q4 Quarterly Forecast for rate forecasts, the key-event calendar and what the coming data could mean for your transfer.
Market Overview

The past 24 hours have been orderly. Yesterday’s UK growth numbers provided a steady floor for sterling without sparking drama, while this morning’s eurozone updates were as expected. The dollar continues to draw residual strength from earlier US inflation data, though today’s slightly softer PPI print has taken a little of the heat out of the most aggressive rate-hike pricing. Ranges across the major pairs have stayed contained.

Looking ahead, the week is effectively complete once the PPI reaction settles; attention will turn to next week’s UK CPI and retail-sales releases. No material UK political developments have moved markets in the last day. For anyone arranging a transfer, a quiet Friday can be a practical advantage – liquidity is decent, cut-offs are clear, and the difference between a smooth same-day settlement and a delayed one often outweighs a few pips of rate movement.

GBP/EUR Analysis

GBP/EUR: €1.1957–€1.1977 | Level: ~1.1969 (0.8354)

Sterling has drifted modestly lower against the euro over the past 24 hours, trading a tight 1.1957–1.1977 range and finishing near 1.1969 (0.8354). The net change remains only a few pips.

  • UK Q3 GDP at 0.7% (in line) and September monthly growth of 0.2% continue to provide a modest floor.
  • Eurozone flash figures matched expectations.
  • Residual dollar strength has indirectly weighed on the cross.
Educational note: When growth data lands exactly as expected, the immediate reaction is often muted, yet the following day can still see quiet position adjustments as participants reassess relative growth versus rate paths. For a property buyer the practical point is that waiting for further “confirmation” can sometimes cost more in process time than any rate improvement. Next week’s UK inflation print will test whether recent growth resilience is enough to keep the Bank of England on its tighter path; until then the cross is likely to stay range-bound, making timing and settlement reliability the larger variables.
PROPERTY BUYER SPOTLIGHT
Timing, Range & the Bigger Picture
 

This table illustrates the best and worst rate over a given time frame — highlighting the volatile nature of the FX markets and why timing is crucial.

Period High Low £250k at High £250k at Low Difference
1 Week 1.1995 1.1942 €299,875 €298,550 €1,325
1 Month 1.2016 1.1819 €300,400 €295,475 €4,925
3 Months 1.2019 1.1620 €300,475 €290,500 €9,975

The numbers show movement is real even when the market feels quiet. Most buyers focus on the rate, yet the rate is only one part of the equation. What often makes the larger difference is the quality of guidance around when to transfer, how the process is managed, the clarity of communication, and the reliability of the people handling the money. A slightly better rate with poor support or delays can cost more than a well-timed transfer executed smoothly.

For early-stage buyers the real question is rarely just “what is the rate today?” It is “who will help me navigate the timing, the paperwork and the practicalities so the money arrives exactly when needed, without stress?”

Want to see a different amount or timeline? try our useful calculator...

Try Calculator Here

GBP/USD Analysis

GBP/USD: $1.3220–$1.3244 | Current: ~1.3230

Cable has edged lower over the past 24 hours, trading a 1.3220–1.3244 range and sitting near 1.3230. The net decline is modest.

  • Yesterday’s UK GDP figures were supportive but already discounted.
  • Lingering effects of the hotter US CPI continue to favour the dollar, tempered slightly by today’s softer PPI.
  • Liquidity remains orderly after the mid-week holiday.
Educational note: After a major inflation print the market often spends subsequent sessions repricing the probability of further rate moves rather than reacting sharply to secondary data. A buyer converting pounds to dollars therefore faces a choice between locking in ahead of any further US signals or accepting a gradual grind. In practice, the difference between the top and bottom of a 24-pip range is frequently smaller than the cost of an incomplete beneficiary detail or a missed cut-off. Next week’s UK CPI will be the next clear catalyst.

EUR/USD Analysis

EUR/USD: $1.1044–$1.1073 | Current: ~1.1050

The euro has slipped further against the dollar, trading a 1.1044–1.1073 range and holding near 1.1050. The net move on the day is small, but the broader picture is more striking: the pair has dropped roughly 1.5–2% in a short space of time from levels above 1.12 earlier in the week and is now trading near multi-month lows (some data points place it at or close to 18-month lows).

  • Eurozone flash GDP and employment prints this morning matched forecasts.
  • Residual US inflation momentum continues to underpin the dollar, even after today’s slightly softer-than-expected PPI (0.3% m/m versus 0.4% forecast).
  • No fresh ECB commentary of note.
Educational note: When both sides of a pair deliver data that is essentially as expected, the currency carrying the stronger rate-differential story tends to keep the upper hand. Here that has favoured the dollar, and the speed of the recent decline has left the euro weaker on a multi-month view. This is a less attractive window for those selling euros for dollars. For our US clients who will need to convert dollars into euros in the coming months, the market is offering more euros per dollar than has been available for some time. The practical observation remains that a clean, well-timed settlement after a quiet data window often preserves more value than chasing a few extra pips around a release that ultimately changes little. Next week’s UK and residual US inflation numbers will set the next tone; until then the pair is likely to stay contained near these lows.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Date Time (UK) Currency Event Actual / Forecast Previous Imp.
Fri 13 Nov (Today) 10:00 EUR GDP y/y (flash) 1.3% / 1.3% 1.2% ★★
Fri 13 Nov (Today) 13:30 USD PPI m/m 0.3% / 0.4% 1.4%* ★★★

*PPI prior revised. Events from the past 24 hours are reflected in the pair analyses above.

Conclusion

Friday has arrived with a lighter step. The main data of the week is now digested, sterling has held its ground on solid growth numbers, and the euro’s sharp decline into multi-month lows has opened a genuinely useful window for US clients converting dollars into euros. Markets look content to drift into the weekend rather than force a decisive move. Next week’s UK inflation and retail figures will give everyone something fresh to debate; until then the dominant theme is calm, data-dependent positioning with a few constructive opportunities on the table. As always, the cleanest transfers tend to be the ones that leave the least to chance – and on a quiet Friday that is often the simplest path.

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
For tailored currency handling solutions, whether for personal transfers or business needs, contact Excel Currencies for a free quote.