Today's Key Points
- Since Friday the pound has quietly strengthened against the euro, a welcome development for British property hunters eyeing the Continent.
- US existing home sales for July came in a touch better than expected at 4.06 million.
- German inflation landed exactly on forecast – no surprises there, much like a British summer forecast of "scattered showers".
- RBA left rates unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday; markets barely stirred.
- Today's main event is the US CPI at 13:30 – the afternoon's big talking point.
- Thursday brings the first look at UK Q2 GDP and industrial figures; Friday sees US retail sales.
- Overall mood remains orderly, with the pound showing a touch more backbone against the single currency.
- Current mid-market ranges: GBP/EUR €1.1578–€1.1705 | GBP/USD $1.3378–$1.3489.
Market Overview
From Friday's close through to this morning the major pairs have traded with the sort of polite restraint one associates with a queue outside a post office. Existing-home sales in the US printed 4.06 million on Tuesday – a modest beat – while the RBA kept rates on hold and German CPI matched forecasts to the decimal place. The standout development for sterling has been its steady advance against the euro since last Friday, lifting GBP/EUR from the mid-1.16s toward the 1.1710 area. That extra purchasing power is particularly useful for UK buyers looking at European property, where every basis point helps stretch the budget a little further. Oil remains elevated on Hormuz worries, yet the currency market itself has stayed largely unflustered ahead of this afternoon's US inflation numbers and Thursday's UK growth data.
GBP/EUR Analysis
GBP/EUR: €1.1578–€1.1705 | Current level: 1.1708 (0.8541) | Snapshot since Friday 7 August: Approximate range 1.1655–1.1715 | Net move +0.30% to +0.35% | Volatility modest
- The pound has put on a respectable showing against the euro since the previous report, climbing from around 1.167 toward the 1.1710 zone.
- German CPI matching forecasts removed any immediate pressure on the euro, allowing sterling's relative firmness to shine through.
- For British property buyers considering a place in Spain, Portugal or further afield, the stronger pound translates into more euros per pound – a quiet but welcome tailwind.
- Thursday's UK GDP figures will be the next domestic test; a solid print could extend the recent outperformance.
Educational note: A firmer GBP/EUR is particularly relevant for UK residents purchasing euro-denominated assets. The extra purchasing power may not quite fund a Tuscan villa with the change from a round of drinks, but it does make the deposit conversation noticeably more cheerful than it was a week ago.
GBP/USD Analysis
GBP/USD: $1.3378–$1.3489 | Current level: 1.3515 | Snapshot since Friday 7 August: Range roughly 1.343–1.353 | Net move higher by around 0.4–0.5% | Volatility contained
- Cable recovered smartly from Friday's levels and has since stabilised in a tight band just above 1.3500.
- Tuesday's existing-home sales beat and the absence of fresh dollar catalysts helped the pound hold its ground.
- Markets remain focused on whether this afternoon's US CPI will confirm the recent softer labour-market tone or reintroduce inflation caution.
- The pair continues to trade with the sort of polite indifference usually reserved for British weather forecasts.
Educational note: When a pair spends several sessions in a narrow range after a clear directional move, it often signals that participants are waiting for the next high-impact release rather than forcing the issue. Today's CPI is precisely that catalyst.
EUR/USD Analysis
EUR/USD: ~1.1540 | Snapshot since Friday 7 August: Range approximately 1.152–1.156 | Net move broadly flat to slightly softer | Volatility low
- The euro has drifted sideways against the dollar while the pound has made relative gains, producing the firmer GBP/EUR cross.
- Final German and Italian inflation figures came in close enough to expectations to leave the euro without a fresh narrative.
- Divergence remains limited; both currencies are largely taking their cue from US data this week.
- A stronger sterling versus the euro continues to offer UK buyers of European property a modest advantage on the exchange rate.
Educational note: Cross-rate moves can sometimes be more informative than the dollar pairs themselves. The recent GBP outperformance against the euro is a reminder that relative growth and rate expectations still matter even when headline volatility is low.
Weekly Economic Calendar
| Date |
Time (UK) |
Currency |
Event |
Actual / Expected |
Prior |
Imp. |
| Tue 11 Aug |
05:30 |
AUD |
RBA Interest Rate Decision |
4.35% / 4.35% |
4.35% |
★★★ |
| Tue 11 Aug |
15:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales (Jul) |
4.06M / 4.05M |
4.13M |
★★ |
| Wed 12 Aug |
07:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) (Jul) |
0.8% / 0.8% |
-0.3% |
★★ |
| Wed 12 Aug |
13:30 |
USD |
CPI (YoY) (Jul) |
— / 3.4% |
3.5% |
★★★ |
| Wed 12 Aug |
13:30 |
USD |
Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) |
— / 2.5% |
2.6% |
★★★ |
| Thu 13 Aug |
07:00 |
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) Prel (Q2) |
— / 0.4% |
0.6% |
★★★ |
| Thu 13 Aug |
07:00 |
GBP |
Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun) |
— / -0.1% |
0.1% |
★★ |
| Thu 13 Aug |
07:00 |
GBP |
GDP (MoM) (Jun) |
— / 0.0% |
0.1% |
★★ |
| Thu 13 Aug |
13:30 |
USD |
PPI (MoM) (Jul) |
— / 0.2% |
-0.3% |
★★ |
| Fri 14 Aug |
13:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) |
— / 0.1% |
0.2% |
★★★ |
Conclusion
Since Friday the pound has managed a quietly confident performance against the euro, offering a modest but useful lift for British buyers considering property across the Channel. Markets themselves have remained largely well-mannered, digesting the RBA hold, a slight beat on US home sales and perfectly behaved German inflation. This afternoon's US CPI will set the tone for the remainder of the week, while Thursday's UK GDP release provides the next domestic checkpoint. All in all, a week that has so far preferred understatement to drama – very British, really.
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
For tailored currency handling solutions, whether for personal transfers or business needs, contact Excel Currencies for a free quote.
|