Here's your Daily Currency Update – 10 July 2026

• German CPI for June printed exactly in line with forecasts at -0.3% MoM and 2.3% YoY, keeping euro sentiment steady without providing any fresh upward momentum.
• Thursday's US data delivered a mixed bag: initial jobless claims came in at 215K — better than the 218K expected — while existing home sales softened to 4.09M against a forecast of 4.19M.
• Sterling held firm against both the euro and the dollar, consolidating recent gains with low volatility heading into the weekend.
• GBP and USD are both showing relative strength against the euro — good news for UK and US buyers with their sights set on European property, who are currently getting a little more bang for their buck across the Channel.
• Today's session has been quiet — which is just how traders like it on a Friday afternoon when there's an international football fixture to look forward to.
• Next week brings the big ones: US CPI on Tuesday and UK GDP on Thursday — potential catalysts for a more directional market.
• Current mid-market ranges: GBP/EUR €1.1589–€1.1707 | GBP/USD $1.3278–$1.3389.

Currency markets closed out the week on a measured note. The key release this morning was German CPI for June, which landed precisely as expected — -0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.3% year-on-year. French inflation figures earlier this week told a similar story of continued disinflation across the eurozone. For the ECB, the data is broadly supportive of a steady, data-dependent path — no urgency to accelerate cuts, but equally no sign of price pressures re-igniting. The euro absorbed the prints with typical composure.

On the other side of the Atlantic, Thursday's US numbers offered a modest silver lining in the form of jobless claims (215K vs 218K expected) but were offset by softer existing home sales. Neither figure materially shifted the dial on Fed rate expectations. Sterling, meanwhile, has been the quiet achiever this week — holding near its recent highs and benefiting from a combination of dollar softness and euro disinflation. For UK and US clients considering European property purchases, the current rate environment is offering genuinely favourable terms. Looking ahead, next week's US CPI and UK GDP prints are the ones to watch — and with a bit of luck, the national mood will be lifted by events in Miami first. Come on England.

• German CPI landed exactly on forecast, removing any surprise element that could have lifted euro sentiment above current levels.
• Sterling maintained its composure through a subdued session, supported by the relative resilience of the UK economic picture.
• The pair remains near the upper end of its recent range — a historically strong position for sterling that has been building since early July.
• Thin Friday volumes have kept moves contained; next week's UK GDP release is the key domestic risk event for this pair.

• Thursday's mixed US data — decent jobless claims offset by soft home sales — did little to reinvigorate the dollar, leaving Cable well supported.
• Sterling continues to benefit from subdued dollar sentiment as markets reassess the pace of potential Fed easing.
• The pair is holding above key technical supports; in thin Friday trading, moves have been contained within the expected range.
• US CPI next Tuesday is the pivotal event — a cooler reading would likely push Cable higher, while a surprise to the upside could give the dollar a temporary boost.

• In-line German and French CPI prints have done little to shift the euro's trajectory, confirming a disinflation trend that keeps ECB policy on a gradual path.
• Dollar resilience from ongoing positioning around Fed rate expectations has kept the pair anchored near recent levels.
• Volatility has been minimal — typical of a Friday session ahead of a weekend with no scheduled central bank speakers.
• Next week's US inflation data is the most likely catalyst for a meaningful directional move.