Here's your Daily Currency Update – 07 July 2026

• Sterling held steady with modest gains against the euro following better-than-expected UK housing data this morning.
• The Halifax House Price Index for June came in ahead of forecasts: +0.2% monthly (vs 0.1% expected) and +0.6% annually — a quiet signal of resilience in the UK property market despite elevated borrowing costs.
• German industrial production surprised to the upside in the latest reading, lending selective support to the euro without significantly denting pound strength.
• The dollar remained broadly firm as markets continue to digest recent US data and position ahead of the US Trade Balance (May) due on Wednesday.
• The RBNZ rate decision later this week is also on the radar — a widely expected 25bp cut would signal continued global easing momentum.
• Today's session has been light on major UK or US catalysts — housing data has set the tone for a measured start to the week.
• Current mid-market rates: GBP/EUR 1.1695 (0.8550) | GBP/USD 1.3383 | EUR/USD 1.1442.

Currency markets opened the week in restrained fashion. The headline release this morning was the Halifax House Price Index, which showed UK house prices rose 0.2% in June on a monthly basis against a 0.1% forecast, and 0.6% year-on-year — an improvement on the prior 0.5% reading. The data points to continued underlying demand in the UK property market, even as households navigate a higher-rate environment. It is not a market-moving release in isolation, but in the current climate where the BoE's next move is being watched closely, any sign of consumer and housing resilience carries more weight than usual.

On the continent, German industrial production beat expectations with a 0.9% monthly gain, adding a positive datapoint to the eurozone picture. No major UK political developments emerged overnight with direct market impact. Looking ahead, Wednesday's US Trade Balance is the most notable near-term release, while the RBNZ rate decision later in the week and any further central bank commentary will keep traders alert to shifting rate narratives. Overall, conditions favour measured, rangebound trading in the absence of a major catalyst.

• Halifax HPI beat on both the monthly and annual readings, reinforcing a modest positive tone for sterling at the start of the week.
• German industrial production outperformance applied some cross pressure, but the pound held up well given the relative absence of positive eurozone momentum data.
• The pair remains near the upper end of its recent range — the highs of 1.1693+ reached last Thursday are holding as a reference point for the market.
• Without a major catalyst, this pair may continue to trade in a tight band until Wednesday or later in the week when US and global data provide fresh direction.

• The pound showed quiet firmness against the dollar, with the Halifax HPI providing a floor for sterling sentiment.
• Recent US data — including last Thursday's softer-than-forecast NFP and ADP readings — has tempered dollar strength and left the pair drifting higher.
• Dollar firmness persists as an undercurrent from broader positioning, but without fresh positive US data the greenback is not asserting itself aggressively.
• Wednesday's US Trade Balance will be watched — a worse-than-expected deficit could weigh further on the dollar and push Cable higher.

• The pair traded in an unusually narrow band, with German IP strength offering modest euro support without generating meaningful upward momentum.
• Compared to sterling, the euro's response to the same backdrop of softer US data has been less pronounced — hence GBP/EUR pushing higher even as EUR/USD holds steady.
• Dollar steadiness from ongoing positioning around Fed expectations is anchoring the downside of this pair.
• This week's US Trade Balance and any Fed-related commentary will be the key inputs for a potential directional break.