Here's your Daily Currency Update – 02 July 2026

• GBP/EUR has pushed to 1.1693 — fresh highs not seen for around 18 months, creating one of the most favourable windows in recent times for UK buyers purchasing or completing on property in Spain, France, or anywhere in the eurozone.
• Over the past 48 hours: UK GDP (Q1) came in mixed, eurozone CPI cooled more than expected to 2.8% YoY, and US ADP employment disappointed at 98K versus a 118K forecast.
• England delivered a nervy but ultimately successful 2-1 comeback win over DR Congo in the World Cup yesterday — a tense affair that had many supporters on the edge of their seats, but relief all round in the end.
• GBP/USD has advanced to 1.3343 and EUR/USD sits at 1.1412 as markets position ahead of today's US Nonfarm Payrolls at 13:30 UK time.
• Today's US jobs report is the dominant market event of the week — the data will likely set the tone for currency pairs heading into the weekend.
• Tomorrow: UK Composite and Services PMIs, then US Independence Day holiday — expect thinner conditions heading into the weekend.

The past 48 hours have delivered a steady flow of data without a single dramatic catalyst — the kind of session where the bigger picture builds quietly. Tuesday's UK GDP (Q1) showed quarterly growth in line with expectations at 0.6%, but the year-on-year reading came in softer at 0.9% versus the 1.1% forecast. German CPI surprised lower at -0.3% monthly, and US JOLTS job openings beat modestly while consumer confidence came in below forecast at 91.2.

Wednesday brought the week's most significant data cluster: eurozone CPI (YoY) cooled to 2.8% — below the 3.0% forecast and down from 3.2% prior — a meaningful softening signal for the ECB's rate path. US ADP employment disappointed at 98K versus 118K expected. UK Manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.5 from 53.1. BoE Governor Bailey also spoke, though his remarks provided no fresh direction. Against this backdrop, sterling has continued to quietly strengthen against the euro, with GBP/EUR now at 1.1693 — extended territory for the pound.

Today is all about US Nonfarm Payrolls, due at 13:30 UK time, accompanied by unemployment, average hourly earnings, and initial jobless claims. This is the single most market-moving release in the global economic calendar and will likely drive sharp moves. Tomorrow brings UK PMIs and a US Independence Day holiday — after the payrolls data today, expect trading conditions to thin out considerably.

• Sterling has pushed to 1.1693 against the euro — the highest level in approximately 18 months — driven by a combination of UK data resilience and notably softer eurozone inflation and PMI readings.
• Wednesday's EU CPI print at 2.8% YoY (below 3.0% forecast) reduced pressure on the ECB to maintain an aggressive rate stance, which naturally softened the euro.
• The cross has shown sustained buying interest across the period with no major reversal despite a light UK data calendar.
• Tomorrow's UK Services and Composite PMIs could either extend momentum or trigger a modest pullback — they are the next significant domestic input.

• Cable has advanced alongside broader GBP strength, with the pound benefiting from relative UK economic steadiness and a cautious dollar ahead of today's NFP.
• Wednesday's soft ADP figure (98K vs 118K) raised questions about US labour market momentum, which gave the dollar less support than it might otherwise have had.
• Today's NFP is the decisive event — the consensus expects 114K new jobs, down from 172K prior. A significant miss could push GBP/USD meaningfully higher; a beat would likely pull it back.
• Technical levels around the 1.33 handle are holding as reference points for near-term positioning.

• The euro has recovered slightly from Tuesday's lows near 1.138, but its gains have been more limited than sterling's — reflected in GBP/EUR pushing higher even as EUR/USD nudged up.
• Wednesday's soft EU CPI (2.8% YoY) was a net negative for the euro, suggesting the ECB has less reason to keep rates elevated — which typically weighs on the currency.
• USD ADP weakness provided some offsetting support, preventing a sharper euro decline.
• The pair is watching the 1.1380–1.1430 range closely ahead of today's NFP — a strong US print could push it back toward the lower end; a miss could test the upper end.