French politics now matters to the Euro



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waterman
Written by Dan Waterman
October 6th, 2025
GBP v EUR rises 0.5% after French PM Lecornu unexpectedly resigns.. 



GBP
The £-€ rate has hit a 3-week high and in my opinion, is worth buying in at. 0.5% is the standard daily swing for the pair, but this morning has seen a 0.5% gain out of the blue and so exchanging should be considered.

We have another extremely quiet data week ahead with the UK literally offering nothing of value. Therefore, we expect a low volatility week ahead (after today of course) and much like today, the Pound will be moved by events elsewhere.




EUR
Today and this week belongs to France. Last time out, French politics didn't affect the Euro whatsoever. The time before that (1-year ago now), limited damage was done as effectively the can was kicked down the road. This time though it's different.

French PM Sebastien Lecornu has resigned after just one month in charge. Lecornu was an ally of President Macron and the 5th Prime Minister in 2-years. His resignation was a total surprise and unprecedented event and it leaves both Macron and France unstable.

Macron will now be under huge pressure to resign himself and call an election.

Both events will create much uncertainty that will weigh on the Euro. France's debt crisis is simply out of control and and the 'right wing' political parties have been knocking on the door for some time now. It looks as if change will now arrive.

The French bond market has naturally spiked (this has been the major headwind for GBP) and is now at a concerning divergence with Germany. The French stock market (CAC) is down by 2%, French banks are trading on average 5% lower and the Euro has been devalued across the board




USD
Today we are witnessing a very unusual and rare trading day..

The USD, US stocks, Gold & Bitcoin are all up.

The news in France is playing its part and so are the developments in Japan. JPY has been devalued by 2% across the board this morning as 'ultra-conservative' Sanae Takaichi becomes the first female prime minister in Japan. 

We are fast approaching the best time to buy the Yen in over 10-years.

The US government shutdown may last weeks yet say some reports in the media today with no-one quite knowing what the ripple effects of the stalemate. The US is the only major nation offering anything of note economically this week and so all eyes on them to produce some volatility after today. 

Please check out the main events of the week below..



Expected mid-market ranges for October 6th 2025

gbp
GBP
usd
USD

    $1.3400 - $1.3450    


gbp
GBP
eur
EUR

  €1.1425 - €1.1525

Upcoming Data
Monday 6th October 2025
18:00 EU - ECB President Lagarde speech
18:30 UK - BoE Governor Bailey speech




Tuesday 7th October 2025
07:00 EU - German factory orders
13:30 US - Trade balance


Wednesday 8th October 2025
07:00 EU - German industrial production


Thursday 9th October 2025
13:30 US - Initial & continuing jobless claims & Fed Chair Powell speech



Friday 10th October 2025
13:30 US - Average earnings, non-farm payrolls & unemployment rate