With little FX volatility and economic data being released today, we will focus on relevant worldwide news..
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| We will be releasing our GBP forecast for Q1 next week, which polls 20 of the biggest banks and data-houses involved in FX.
We will continue to report on investment banks 2026 forecasts as they come in and we have two interesting ones for you today.
Both Citi & Investec are nervous for GBP v EUR and forecast a very consistent £-€1.12 in each quarter this year.
The divergence on GBP v USD though is a large one. Citi predict a median return of just £-$1.26, whereas Investec are much higher at £-$1.33. A much more volatile currency pair does come with wider forecasts, but someone here is going to be very wrong.
Elsewhere, The World Bank has forecast that the 2020's are shaping up to be the weakest growth decade since the 1960's. The report sees just 2.7% growth in 2026 & 2027 and reinforces a 'low growth, but highly-resilient' global backdrop.
Spanish property prices are likely to have increased by more than a staggering 13% in 2025 with many areas hitting new all time highs (including Balearic Islands, Madrid, Barcelona, Malaga, Tenerife, Alicante & Valencia). A mixture of an excellent economy, high rental costs and low supply/high demand of properties (and great weather of course) are the reasons for the hot market, which looks set to continue into 2026.
Greenland's Prime Minister has said his nation would choose Denmark (Nato member) if they were forced to make such a choice. President Trump responded with 'I don't know who he is, I disagree with him and that's going to be a big problem for him.'
Trump wants to either buy or annex Greenland for geopolitical reasons (security against Russia & China and to deter hostile vessels and missile attacks). The US has had 100 military personnel permanently stationed in Greenland since WW11.
Finally, China has posted a record-breaking trade surplus in 2025, hitting $1 trillion for the first time. Exports to the US fell by 20% due to tariffs, but grew by over 40% elsewhere. The Chinese Yuan is hotly tipped to gain 5%+ this year and China continues to close the gap to the US for being the global superpower.
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