BoE interest rate decision due later day

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waterman

Written by Dan Waterman
September 18th 2025
There have been no surprises whatsoever from the important data releases this week and today is expected to very much follow suit..

The voting and the meeting after is more important than the actual BoE interest rate result today.

The BoE are fully expected to hold interest rates today and at the time of writing, there is a 40% chance of a 25bp cut for November. That % chance will likely change once the voting is revealed and/or through the comments after and it's for this reason GBP may move today.

Remember, all financial markets are forward thinking which is why any surprise in data or a black swan event causes market volatility. 

A vote of 7-2 to hold is expected with the same forward guidance on monitoring the data (mainly inflation, jobs and growth). Personally, I expect this to be a non-event, putting it in-line perfectly with the week we have had so far.

Last night across the pond, the Federal Reserve cut its interest rate as expected by 25bp. The voting of which was expected too with only one member (Miran) voting for a 50bp cut and who did so politically. 

There has been huge concern over the independence of the Fed this year, but this vote showed unity amongst members. The Fed has moved into a neutral risk management position after listening to the comments after the release, which is where most economists expect them to be right now, but not where President Trump wants them to be. 

More sideways movement it is for the Pound then..