Tories remain on course to secure majority victory

Hi everyone,

As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the market is pretty much being solely driven by the upcoming UK general election and so polling data takes the daily hot seat. A recent projection by 'Datapraxis' (a data modelling company), currently predicts a Conservative majority of 48. A weekend feature by 'The Telegraph' also suggests a majority for the Tories (64 seats) and Sterling has responded positively this morning on the back of both polls.

Even though the Pound is performing comfortably over the average of the last 2 years, the market is wary of a sudden change in the polls (seen during Theresa May's campaign in 2017) and a hung Parliament outcome and so higher rates look unattainable until after the election.

We saw the release of the Conservative manifesto yesterday and it's clear their main message is to "get Brexit done". We agree with analysts that the more pitfalls the Tories avoid, the better their chance of securing a majority vote come December and it looks like they have done that with this manifesto.

The US dominates the early weeks data, until an unusual super-Friday bursts into life with a morning of important figures for £ & €. We also see the next round of TV debates on the same-day, with this time a seven-way podium clash instead of two. A quiet week expected until the Friday.


 

 

 

Upcoming Data
 

 

Tuesday, 26th November, 2019


07:00 EU - German consumer confidence 
09:30 UK - Loans for house purchase
13:30 US - Trade balance, wholesale inventories & house price index
15:00 US - Consumer confidence & new home sales
 

Wednesday, 27th November, 2019


07:00 EU - German import price index
12:00 US - Mortgage applications
13:30 US - Durable goods, jobless claims & personal consumption
15:00 US - Pending home sales, personal income/spending
19:00 US - FED releases beige book


Thursday, 28th November, 2019


00:00 UK - House price index
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone overall confidence
13:00 EU - German CPI


Friday, 29th November, 2019


00:00 UK - Consumer confidence
07:00 EU - German retail sales
07:45 EU - French GDP
08:55 EU - German unemployment 
09:30 UK - Consumer credit, mortgage approvals & consumer credit
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone CPI & unemployment rate
11:00 EU - Italian GDP

 
 
 



Dan Waterman
Office Manager

 
 
 


 

 
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