Sterling faces bleak outlook for June

Hi everyone,

I'm sure most of you are happy to see May come and go after seeing the Pound struggle severely across the board. £-€ rates suffered a 3.7% drop and £-$ fell over 4%. 

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news folks but this month, analysts are predicting a sideways performance and believe current levels will be the highs of the month. The declines are being supported by the Tory leadership contest with many candidates in favour of a no-deal Brexit. Morgan Stanley today suggested they see below £-€1.10 in the months to come. 

The chances of a no-deal Brexit are becoming very real once again and should be taken seriously. Jeremy Hunt is the favourite amongst the party membership (opposed to no-deal), but Boris Johnson is the current favourite overall who is a strong Brexiteer. If the latter wins, the £ will fall further. 

Recent economic data for the UK has looked a little shaky after surprising markets with constant strong figures for a while now. There is key data daily this week with Thursday being particularly interesting for the Euro. 




Upcoming Data


Tuesday, 4th June, 2019

08:30 UK - Construction PMI
09:00 EU - Euro-Zone unemployment rate & CPI

13:55 US - Fed conference
14:00 US - Factory & durable goods orders

Wednesday, 5th June, 2019

08:00 EU - Markit PMI
08:30 UK - PMI
09:00 EU - PPI & retail sales
11:00 US - Mortgage applications
12:15 US - Employment change
14:00 US - Non-Manufacturing/services composite
18:00 US - Fed release beige book

Thursday, 6th June, 2019

06:00 EU - German factory orders
07:30 EU - German PM
09:00 EU - Euro-Zone GDP & government expenditure
09:00 UK - BoE Governor Carney conference
11:45 EU - ECB rate decision
12:30 EU - ECB conference
12:30 US - Jobless claims & trade balance

Friday, 7th June, 2019

06:00 EU - German industrial production & trade balance
08:30 UK - BoE inflation report
12:30 US - Unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, average earnings
19:00 US - Consumer credit


Dan Waterman
Office Manager

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