Mid-week report Report 21st - 23rd November

Good morning everyone,

 

Today’s economic data releases are second tier and so are unlikely to distract attention from Brexit developments or from the ongoing fluctuations in global stock markets. In the UK, the October public sector borrowing figures are forecast to be slightly lower than at the same point a year ago. In last month’s Budget forecast, the Office for Budget Responsibility estimated that this year’s deficit was on course to undershoot last year’s total by about £11bn. Today’s expected number would seem to be consistent with this, although there are still chances for surprises in the last five months of the fiscal year.

The OECD revised economic forecasts will be of interest, particularly whether the organisation has lowered its global economic growth expectations. Meanwhile, its forecasts for the UK will provide an indication of how the impact of its withdrawal from the EU is seen elsewhere in the world

Markets await the European Commission’s reaction to Italy’s refusal to back down from its budget plan. The EU has the power to fine Italy but it is unclear whether it is actually prepared to do so. The European Commission will this morning publish opinions on the budget plans of all Eurozone economies, and is expected to reject the Italian budget as it stands. Finance Minister Tria is also scheduled to speak in the lower house of the Italian national assembly.

In the US, existing home sales for October will provide further evidence on whether the housing market is faltering. In contrast, manufacturing activity has remained buoyant despite ongoing concerns about trade tensions. Orders tend to be a good indicator of activity, and analysts expect today’s ‘core’ numbers to have risen in October, although the volatile aerospace component is likely to have slipped back.

 

Upcoming Economic Data.

Tuesday 20th November 2018

10:00 UK Governor Carney speech

13:30 US Housing starts & building permits

 

Wednesday, 21st November 2018

09:00 EU - Istat release economic forecast 2018 & 2019

09:30 UK - Public borrowing & finances

10:00 EU - OECD economic outlook

12:00 US - Mortgage applications

13:30 US - Durable goods & jobless claims

15:00 US - Existing home sales

 

Thursday, 22nd November 2018

12:30 EU - ECB publishes account of policy meeting

15:00 EU - Euro-Zone consumer confidence

 

Friday, 23rd November 2018

07:00 EU - German GDP

08:30 EU - Markit German PMI

09:00 US - Markit Euro-Zone PMI

14:45 US - Markit PMI

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