Daily Report 09/10/2018
Today has a very light economic data calendar with nothing of note in the UK or the Eurozone. That is likely to result in UK politics and in particular Brexit negotiations remaining the key focus for markets. However, as yesterday’s meeting between Brexit Minister Raab and EU Chief Negotiator Barnier did not go ahead, it suggests they are still some way from a breakthrough. Arlene Foster the head of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionists was due to meet Barnier today to discuss details of an Irish border deal, although it is unclear if this will go ahead.
A statement from last week’s Bank of England Financial Policy Committee meeting will be released this morning, but no changes of substance are expected in policy. Meanwhile, BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent appears before a House of Lords Committee to discuss “the use of the RPI”. Italy’s fiscal plans may also command attention as the Italian parliament is set to discuss the details of the Budget plans revealed last week. Given that the Coalition commands a majority, the budget seems likely to be passed ahead of being sent to the EU on 15th October.
With market sentiment for GBP/EUR rate now on an side way/upward trend at time of writing - Current key trading level is still around the €1.1430’s (If we see the rate move higher than this level for a sustained amount of time, then the likelihood of the rate moving towards €1.1480’s will be high). Traders are now suggesting that the rate will struggle to push higher than €1.14’s until we get more substantial news on the Irish boarder issue or Arlene Forster (From the DUP) eases her current stance.