Daily Currency Report 04/09/2018
Sterling depreciated yesterday amidst conflicting comments raising concerns that a Brexit deal will be hard to achieve. Today’s testimony from BoE officials will be watched closely. Markets in particular will look for indications whether Mark Carney is willing to stay as Governor beyond mid-2019. Meanwhile, the US dollar moved higher against a range of currencies. Trade negotiations will remain in focus today as the US continues to work on a new deal with Canada.
The UK parliament returns from its summer recess today. Brexit will likely dominate much of parliament’s discussions over the next few months. However, there are no Brexit debates scheduled for this week. So for now attention will be focused on Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and three of his colleagues from the Monetary Policy Committee who will testify about the BoE’s latest interest rate hike and the August Inflation Report. Mr Carney will probably be questioned about rumours that he has been asked to stay on as BoE head for another year following his scheduled departure date in mid-2019. The Bank’s representatives may also be grilled on the Brexit assumptions in their forecasts and possibly about their likely policy reaction to alternative scenarios.
The US returns from holiday to a busy economic data calendar. Of most interest will be Friday’s labour market report. Ahead of that, today’s August ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a second consecutive monthly fall to 57.9. However, this would still be consistent with a relatively high level of activity. The July reading for construction activity will also be of interest, particularly given growing concerns that the US housing market is faltering. We look for a rebound following an unexpected decline in June.