Crucial 48 hours for May

Hi everyone,


"Theresa May's Brexit deal crashes as EU turns off life support" was the leading headline from the Sunday Times yesterday, causing Sterling to tumble across the board this morning. Supposedly, EU officials had rejected May's plans and a 'no-deal' is now back on the cards. The Pound dipped into the £-$1.28's & £-€1.13's on the back of the reports, that if true would be very damaging.

Since then, French and Belgian ministers have told reporters "We are waiting for new news from London" and "It is a question of a British political decision", implying that significant news is expected in the next 48 hours. Disagreements seemingly are solely focused on the hard Irish border and if an agreement to this issue can be reached, we could be very much there with the whole thing. Theresa May's cabinet continue to meet through to tomorrow, so some sort of news is expected before the EU summit on Wednesday. The Brexit pendulum continues to swing..

The majority of asset managers are still banking on a deal being agreed and Danske Bank put the chance of an agreement at 75%, so consensus from the big players remain unchanged. Interestingly, the Euro is now at a 16-month low versus the USD amid Brexit and Italian debt insecurities. So if good news arrives in the next 48 hours, we could see significant gains for £, especially against the €. 




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Tuesday, 13th November, 2018

07:00 EU - German CPI
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10:00 EU - German ZEW survey
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Wednesday, 14th November, 2018


07:00 EU - German GDP
09:30 UK - CPI & house price index
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Thursday, 15th November, 2018

09:30 UK - Retail sales
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Friday, 16th November, 2018

08:30 EU - President Draghi conference
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Dan Waterman
Office Manager

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