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Daily Forecast: 9th Feb 2018

Good morning everyone,

The Bank left interest rates unchanged at 0.5% yesterday, as expected, but the minutes said that policy “would need to be tightened somewhat earlier and by a somewhat greater degree over the forecast period”. To a large degree, that reflected a change in policymakers’ intention to return inflation to target at a “more conventional horizon”, i.e. over around two years rather than allowing for a longer adjustment period of three years. The result from this was stronger Sterling exchange rates and markets are currently pricing around 70% probability of a May hike and fully pricing a rise by August 2018, while the pound has risen to around $1.40 and €1.14.

Main focus for UK data today will be January's GDP Estimate. Currency forecasts are for a drop of 0.1% which should mean Sterling will hold on to some of its gains made yesterday. Also due out at some point today will be an up-date on Brexit negotiations with early indications suggesting the EU's Barnier will make an official statement later today.


Today's report was brought to you by Excel Currencies

The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. The author(s) cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

Converter Rate Alerts
GBPCAD 1.76127    EURUSD 1.23229    EURAED 4.52882    EURGBP 0.88122    GBPZAR 16.40710    GBPUSD 1.39595    GBPEUR 1.13072    GBPCHF 1.30441    GBPAUD 1.76935    GBPAED 5.13022    GBPNZD 1.89969    
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