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Daily Forecast: 15th Nov 2017
Yesterday evening, the Bank of England MPC’s Jon Cunliffe – who voted against the rate rise earlier this month – attached weight to the
fact that domestic inflationary pressures remain subdued and that wage growth has yet to respond to low unemployment. His colleague on the
MPC, Ben Broadbent, who voted for the rate increase, will give a speech on Brexit and interest rates at 13:00GMT.
Despite domestic political and economic challenges, the pound has remained broadly range-bound against the US dollar in recent weeks ($1.30 - $1.32)
It fell temporarily to 1.3075 against the US dollar yesterday after the release of UK October CPI inflation which stayed at 3.0%, below market
expectations. The pound declined against the euro, however, which largely reflected particularly strong GDP growth figures in Germany.
Today’s UK labour market figures will be watched for signs of acceleration in pay growth, given the multi-decade low in the unemployment rate.
Key US economic figures, meanwhile, are unlikely to stand in the way of a December rate rise.
US CPI inflation and retail sales will be released later today. Many expect annual inflation to have eased back to 2.1% in October. However, the
recent sharp increase in the oil price points to a further acceleration ahead. As for US retail sales, September saw the biggest monthly rise
in retail sales in over two years, primarily reflecting replacement spending and higher inflation in the wake of the hurricanes that hit
southern states. A near-term fall back in spending would hardly be surprising and many we expect retail sales to show no growth in October.
EU withdrawal bill discussed in House of Commons (Tue/Wed)
US consumer prices/retail sales (Wed)
UK retail sales (Thu)
BoE’s Carney + Members speak in Liverpool (Thu)
ECB’s Draghi speaks in Frankfurt (Fri)
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