No Brexit breakthrough expected this week

Hi everyone,

Caution is being urged by analysts on Sterling's rally, as there is suspicion amongst many, that the market has overreacted to recent Brexit comments. The Pound starts the week in the red on the back of comments made by EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier, who suggested the recent UK proposals are not good enough and the backstop is still unacceptable. That being said, £ still remains as the best performing currency this month and trades at one of the best times in 3 months.

The Brexit pendulum is swinging towards a deal, but what the last two years have taught us is that it will probably swing the other way at some point. It will only take one negative comment to make the Pound fall. France for instance have not shown an optimistic tone on talks. Boris Johnson is meeting a number of political leaders this week in New York, but this may be a non-event in terms of Brexit news. 

Thursday is a very interesting day with comments from both the UK & EU heavyweights; Carney & Draghi. What they have to say will undoubtedly move the market, as will the key US data just before.

The Euro is under real pressure at the moment and showing significant signs of weakness. The recent rate cut and increasing QE are seen as negative and Germany's economy has majorly slowed. These mixed with political uncertainty in both Italy & Spain and it feels like it's a matter of time until the Euro takes centre stage under the spotlight instead of the Pound. 


 

 

 

Upcoming Data
 

 

Tuesday, 24th September, 2019


09:00 EU - German business climate & expectations
09:30 UK - Public finances & net borrowing
14:00 US - House price index
15:00 US - Consumer confidence
 

Wednesday, 25th September, 2019


07:00 EU - German consumer confidence
09:30 UK - Loans for house purchases 
12:00 US - Mortgage applications
14:00 EU - World trade monitor 
15:00 US - New home sales



Thursday, 26th September, 2019


09:00 EU - ECB publishes economic bulletin
13:30 US - Trade balance, GDP, jobless claims & personal consumption
14:30 EU - ECB President Draghi conference
14:45 UK - BoE Governor Carney conference
15:00 US - Pending home sales


Friday, 27th September, 2019


00:00 UK - Consumer confidence
07:00 EU - German import price index
10:00 EU - Euro-Zone consumer confidence
13:30 US - Durable goods, personal income/spending

 
 
 

Dan Waterman
Office Manager

 
 
 
 
 
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