40% chance in a no-deal Brexit

Hi everyone,

The Pound has practically been unchanged all week, which is a good sign after long and deep losses of late. I would say if Sterling 'limps' along for the rest of the month at current levels, that would be a success.

Today UK inflation breached the BoE's 2% target, which in another world would have pushed the £ higher. However, because of Brexit uncertainty we will see no major jumps for £ on the back of economic data and for the foreseeable future. Interest rates are only likely to fall in the current climate and £ will react negatively if/when that happens.

The majority of analysts now predict a 40% chance of a no-deal Brexit happening. The most pessimistic out of them all is MUFG bank, who suggest the chances are more like 60% at this stage. Sterling is forecast to finish 2019 at £-€1.03 & £-$1.10 if a no-deal is realised and worse still if the UK enters a recession. 

 

 
 
 
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