What now for May & Sterling?


Hi everyone,

Last week saw £-€ rates drop the most seen in a trading day for over two years. The uncertainty surrounding Brexit has spiked and everyday we will see market volatility, until one of the following outcomes win - 

May's deal - Positive for £
No deal - Negative for £
No Brexit - ???

Whatever your political views, you can expect the above performance based on the outcome with 3% positive or negative swings. Traders and investors do not like uncertainty and a 'no-deal' does just that, no matter how 'bad' the May deal on the table is.

There are strong reports of a leadership challenge in the coming days and a number of senior ministers (Leadsom, Grayling, Fox, Mordaunt & Gove) coming together to offer an alternative Brexit proposal. If this fails to materialise, we should see Sterling recover slightly, before the next hurdle of getting the plan pushed through parliament.

Theresa May remains defiant and the market remains hypersensitive.



Upcoming Data


Tuesday, 20th November, 2018

10:00 UK - Governor Carney speech
13:30 US - Housing starts & building permits

Wednesday, 21st November, 2018


09:00 EU - Istat release economic forecast 2018 & 2019
09:30 UK - Public borrowing & finances
10:00 EU - OECD economic outlook
12:00 US - Mortgage applications
13:30 US - Durable goods & jobless claims
15:00 US - Existing home sales

Thursday, 22nd November, 2018

12:30 EU - ECB publishes account of policy meeting
15:00 EU - Euro-Zone consumer confidence

Friday, 23rd November, 2018

07:00 EU - German GDP
08:30 EU - Markit German PMI
09:00 US - Markit Euro-Zone PMI
14:45 US - Markit PMI


Dan Waterman
Office Manager



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