Vote of No Confidence called on PM May, so what happens next?

Good afternoon everyone


Hopes rose of a potential trade deal between the US and China overnight. President Trump noted he would intervene in the case of the Huawei CFO if that helped secure a deal. He also said he was prepared to meet Chinese President Xi again to discuss trade.

A spokesman for the UK prime minister confirmed yesterday that the House of Commons vote on the Brexit deal would be held before 21st January. Meanwhile, Sir Graham Brady, head of the Conservative Party 1922 committee, has announced that he has received 48 letters from Tory MPs required to trigger a leadership challenge. Reports suggest the vote will take place this evening.

There is no UK economic data of note today. Italian PM Conte is set to address the Italian parliament today ahead of discussions with European Commission President Juncker about the Italian budget situation. French tax cuts and spending increases announced earlier this week in response to the “yellow vest” protests have not gone unnoticed in Italy. As the French budget deficit may now move above a level consistent with EU rules, the Italian populists may be emboldened to reject the EU Commission’s demands for cutbacks in its own budget.

Vote of No Confidence called on PM May, so what happens next?

  • Early reports suggest vote secret ballot will take place tonight between (6-8pm)
  • If a majority of Tory lawmakers vote that they have confidence in May, she cannot face another such vote for a year.
  • If a majority vote against her, she must resign as leader, and cannot run in the contest to replace her.
  • Brady would then organize a contest for a new leader. May would be likely to stay on as prime minister until her successor was chosen.

What to look out for later tonight

The magic number PM May needs to reach is 158. That’s half of her parliamentary party, plus one, and it’s the number of votes she’ll need from Conservative MPs simply to stay in office. Upon the announcement later this evening analysts are expecting Sterling to see some support if she wins but are not expecting the Sterling exchanges rates to rally as Brexit uncertainly is still hanging over the UK. 

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