UK vaccination programme set to accelerate

Hi everyone,

A bit of a vaccine report today as plenty of data-houses have had their say recently on what happens next for the Pound. We know the main driver for the Pound's strong start to the year has been due to the successful vaccine rollout in the UK. But, latest figures show the EU is closing the gap.

The data shows the UK's rate of vaccination stalled mid-February, allowing other nations to catch up. The pick of the EU nations has been Spain, where significant progress has been made recently. The Euro-Zone has doubled its daily dose rate in 1-month, going from 500,000 to 1,000,000 people a day. Supply is expected to pick up further in the coming weeks as new vaccines get introduced into the system.

The UK is still way ahead of all nations in Europe in terms of vaccinations and has delivered the third most doses in the world (23M), only bettered by China (52M) and the US (90M). A staggering 35 out of 100 people in the UK has been vaccinated, compared to just 9 in Italy & Spain and 8 in Germany & France. But as the gap closes, so will some of the gloss on the UK & £.

However, we could be set for another vaccine-inspired rally in the next couple of weeks (don't hold me to that). Yesterday, the NHS confirmed they are expecting a significant increase to supply from AstraZeneca, due to be rolled out from next Monday. Delivered doses are expected to rise from 2-million a week to 3-million a week. This could mean all current vaccine targets will be hit 2-weeks early. Previously, £ gained when the UK hit major vaccine milestones, are we going to continue to see more of the same?

The gradual easing of restrictions in the UK is underway and we are expecting the economy to really start bouncing back next month, maybe even this month. The last 3/4 months worth of data has continually surprised economists across the board and so there is major expectation for very good growth figures in Q2 & 3. The hope is that there is enough pent up demand from businesses and consumers to spend money during the summer months to spark the economy back into life. This would then hopefully strengthen the Pound onto the desirable £-€1.20 & £-$1.50 levels.

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