UK & EU show early signs of economic recovery


Hi everyone,

Unsurprisingly, this morning the UK produced the worst ever recorded figures for retail sales, as consumption activity collapsed in April during the enforced lockdown measures. Economists suggest there will be a pick up in May, as some shops partially re-opened, but it's June's figure that will be the most important as non-essential stores re-open. 

The UK Government also broke a record earlier today, by borrowing £62.1B in April to support the crippled economy. Over £6B of this was used to pay furloughed workers. The overall figure was much larger than anticipated and analysts predict that borrowing will hit 17.5% of GDP, 7% higher that the 2008 recession. 

Elsewhere, unemployment in the US has now surpassed the total claims made during the great depression. An astonishing 39-million Americans have lost their jobs in the last 9-weeks. Billionaire George Soros, believes the survival of the EU is being challenged, as the debate on how to finance a recovery fund carries on. He also adds that Italy are being unfairly treated by the EU and that the coronavirus damage to the Euro-zone economy will last longer than most people are predicting.  

As we go into another sunny bank holiday weekend, we will end on some positive news from yesterday. The two most important sectors to the UK economy showed increased activity for the month of May, meaning we are past the bottom-out point. Manufacturing showed a notable improvement compared to April, but it was the most important sector that stole the show. Services accounts for 80% of UK activity and figures nearly doubled from April's figure.

Whilst the EU & UK's economy is technically still shrinking and with 2022 being touted as the earliest date that both economies will return to pre-virus levels. These latest figures show a recovery and that is what everyone wants to see.




Ian Daly
Trading Floor Manger



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